Drake Maye has had a fair amount of Drake ‘Maybe’ moments here in January. Some of that is understandable. Both the Chargers and Texans’ defenses are excellent. Hell, having seen the Houston speed up close and personal, they are elite. But when a quarterback puts the ball on the ground six times in two games - losing three - has a sub-60% completion percentage after leading the NFL at 70+ during the regular season and has thrown a pair of interceptions (one the Hail Mary at the half on Sunday), what would you be saying if he were the opposing quarterback? You know the answer to that very well...
“I have to be better with the football when I'm taking off and running,” Maye said post-game. “From there, just know that the football is the prized possession. And when we don't turn the ball over and put the team in the best spots, I like our chances.”
Of course, the young signal caller isn’t the only issue here. Pass protection has been spotty, and while not all 10 of the postseason sacks fall on their shoulders - Maye has to own a few - that’s helped turn one of the most consistent and productive offenses in football into the very definition of feast or famine. The nerd numbers back that up.
- The Patriots had the third-lowest offensive EPA (expected points added) per play by a winning team this entire season. Only the Week 9 Jets (who beat the Browns) and the Week 18 Raiders (who beat the Chiefs) performed worse.
- Over the last decade of playoff football, the Pats’ performance against the Texans was the third-lowest in a victory (-1.01 EPA per drive).
- The Pats had 15 drives on Sunday. They didn’t record a first down on 9 of those series. The average field position on those nine drives was the 36-yard line. They ran 26 plays and gained five yards. That’s not a typo. Five is the real number.
- The Pats finished the Divisional Round game with a success rate of 30.6% overall, and 30% on passing plays. They had 10 “successful” plays by this marker on 30 drop-backs. Four, however, were of explosives, hence the 'feast" version of this attack.
- On the six drives that produced at least one first down, the Pats had an EPA of +0.74. Not overwhelming, but were that a full day at the office, Josh McDaniels would be pleased, and they likely score more than 21 points on offense.
“I wish I had some plays back,” Maye said. “But I can’t be too hard on myself. Just move on to the next one.”
The win over the Texans was one of the rare occasions this season where Maye couldn’t consistently turn the page after a bad play or series. Aside from the obvious physical gifts, that’s arguably been his best trait: the ability to correct mistakes and not repeat them (I’ve written that sentence a couple of dozen times this year). Maye mostly did that in the second half of the Chargers game, with the exception being the second strip-sack fumble (Jared Wilson recovered) when it was designed to be a quick throw (both tackles threw cut blocks), and instead he tried to create. In this game, his accuracy was spotty, as was his decision-making in and out of the pocket. Maye and the offense were unable to convert any of those Texans turnovers into points (Marcus Jones, on the other hand, didn’t. Thank goodness for that kid). The Pats went fumble, and then three three-and-outs after CJ Stroud and company gave ‘em gifts.
The flip side of this story is that when Maye and company dialed in, the playmaking was breathtaking at times. The first touchdown pass was a slant-glance-flats concept to Pop Douglas against a cover-zero blitz (no help in the middle of the field). Safety Calen Bullock had good coverage and actually got a piece of that 4th-and-short throw, but Douglas’ season-long success against man coverage showed up in that spot, as did Maye ripping an accurate throw.
On the second TD-producing drive by the offense (that made it 21-10), McDaniels went back to the slant-flats concept three times. Nickel corner Jalen Pitre got caught with eyes on the flat for just a split-second, allowing Kayshon Boutte to get a step or two on the slant. Maye delivered a catchable ball that gave big-play Boutte plenty of running room to make yards after the catch. Put that one down for a 25-yard gain.
Two plays later, it was back to Boutte, this time coming out of trips (he was the outside receiver). Stefon Diggs didn’t release into the flat; rather, he bubbled out as if he might get a screen. Hunter Henry drove through man coverage and occupied the safety, and from there, Boutte came underneath on the slant for 18 more yards.
On the touchdown that capped the drive, the Pats put Diggs in motion to correctly determine the Texans were in man coverage, sent TreVeyon Henderson into the flat at the snap of the ball (from the backfield), then Maye unleashed a frozen rope between a pair of defenders (safety Jaylen Reed was in man, and Bullock tried to come over the top but had to fight through Henry. The catch by Diggs was top-shelf.
The Patriots put together two more drives of note: a 6-play, 71-yard march that ended with the ridiculous one-handed Boutte catch over Derek Stingley. That was a “989” concept, with both outside receivers running go routes, and Douglas coming out of the slot and driving toward the post (though in this case, he bent it off a little sooner). It was the same play Maye and Boutte hooked up on during last year’s game against the Texans (Maye’s first-ever start and first-ever NFL TD pass).
Then there was the “classy” march - as Mike Vrabel termed it - after a punt pinned the Pats back at their own 4-yard line. The Pats went to their bigger personnel - hello, Thayer Munford - and chewed up over six minutes of clock in the fourth quarter. That drive didn’t end in points, but for my money, it iced the game.
“Just proud of the offensive line for being able to run it when they know we're going to run it in that second-to-last drive,” Maye said. “And I botched the last third down. I missed the throw. But really just proud of the guys for running it. It's hard in this league to run it when they know you're going to run it. Those guys were huge.”
Of course, there’s no reason to apologize for the results. No one should be asking for that. The Patriots are just one of four teams still playing, and not even the guy who has tattoos of Pat the Patriot and the Lombardi Trophy(ies?) and probably Belichick and Brady somewhere on his flesh thought this team would be back this soon, easy schedule or not. But can the Pats win two more games against top-10 defenses - Denver, Seattle, and LA are all that statistically - without finding a higher, more sustained level of execution and performance?
“They'll be the best defense that we've played to date, because it's the next one,” Vrabel said Monday on the Broncos. “And that's just how this goes. They're playing with a lot of confidence. They're good on the perimeter, really good up front. The athleticism, their size, they put a lot of pressure on you. So that's just how this thing goes. Each and every week, they get tougher.”
