Bedard: After dispatching the Texans, Patriots head to AFC title game in new position - prohibitive favorite

FOXBOROUGH — In the most unexpected of seasons, the Patriots have always been able to count on ... well, being counted out. Or, at the very least, dismissed.

The schedule was ridiculously easy.

They caught the Bills by surprise early, but couldn't beat them at home.

Tampa didn't have half its offense, and still didn't even make the playoffs. Not a good win.

Lamar Jackson didn't finish the Ravens game when the Patriots came back.

Even in the playoffs, they beat a Chargers team with the league's worst offensive line. The Texans didn't have Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz or Trent Brown. Just a continuation of the regular season.

That's made it fairly easy for the Patriots to play the disrespect card, or that nobody believes in them. Or, as we heard after the Patriots' 28-16 win over the Texans, the Patriots' defense wasn't getting enough respect compared to Houston's unit (I mean, facts are facts).

Heck, even ESPN was doing its part to fan the flames.

And good on the Patriots for using all that and more to help fuel themselves a little bit on the way to the AFC Championship (even though it was really just good coaching, good health, and execution ... the rest of that stuff is completely overrated once the game kicks off).

But here's the thing, as New England prepares to go to Denver and the Patriots' personal house of horrors, Empower Field at Mile High, to play the AFC Championship Game at 3 p.m. Sunday. All that stuff about the Patriots being underrated and how they haven't gotten the respect they deserve, all of that is over. At least for this week.

In fact, the team that no one expected to be here will have all the pressure on them to advance to Super Bowl LX in San Francisco, against either the Seahawks or Rams.

Talk about a turnaround. The team that the coach just wanted to be good enough to take advantage of bad football, the team that dialed back expectations after getting shredded in a joint practice with the Vikings, the team that was a heel from starting 0-3, stands at 16-3 and is now a prohibitive favorite in a road conference championship game.

The Patriots are currently 5.5-point favorites against the Broncos, and we all know why. The Broncos lost starting quarterback Bo Nix on the second-to-last play, one that was utterly meaningless, in their overtime win over the Bills. The Patriots will face the Patriots' 2019 fourth-round pick, Jarrett Stidham, the only backup in the NFL not to throw a pass this season. Stidham's six-year career: 1-3 as a starter (only win was over the 5-12 Chargers in 2023 under interim coach Giff Smith), 59% completions, 8 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 19 sacks taken.

Basically, all the pressure is on the Patriots. As opposed to the Texans' game, where a loss against a great defense maybe wouldn't have been a failure (it's happened to Tom Brady), a loss to the Broncos would be viewed as a failure, possibly an epic one that would be talked about for years.

The Patriots can't lose this game. Not to Stidham.

And, guess what? Now the Broncos get to play the disrespect card all week. No one is going to pick them. No one is going to think they have a chance.

Do I think the Broncos have a chance in hell?

Well, I can tell you that Sean Payton is going to milk the crap out of the disrespect card with his team. I'm not sure that will be enough to support Stidham. From what I remember about him, he can get flustered under pressure, and he starts to look at the pass rush. Stidham's PFF pressure grade from 2023 with the Broncos (he started when Russell Wilson was benched by Payton) was horrendous:

However, the Broncos do have an excellent offensive line, even if they had to put starting center Luke Wattenberg on injured reserve last month (and backup Alex Forsyth was injured against the Bills). LT Garrett Bolles and RG Quinn Meinerz are All-Pros. RT Mike McGlinchey is a good veteran. Rookie running back RJ Harvey is a good player.

But the Broncos are dealing with a lot of injuries at receiver (of course, they're playing the Patriots). Pat Bryant was ruled out quickly with a concussion, and Troy Franklin barely played with a hamstring injury, as Denver had just three receivers most of the game, including former Patriot Lil'Jordan Humphrey, who dropped a touchdown pass.

It will be interesting to see how Payton plays this. He built his offense around the athletic Nix, even using his running skills on designed runs. Stidham is not even close to the athlete Nix is. He's slow and heavy-footed. I assume Payton is going to rely on the run and quick game, with a few schemed-up shots sprinkled in.

And, yes, the Broncos' defense is very good. They are ranked 5th in total DVOA, 8th against the pass, and third against the run.

The Broncos, coordinated by Vance Joseph, finished the year with 68 sacks, breaking the previous franchise record of 63, set in 2024. That was the fifth-most sacks in NFL history. Denver also had 10 games this season where they recorded four or more sacks, tied for the fourth-most in a single season in NFL history.

Nik Bonitto led all Denver players with 14 sacks, and Jonathon Cooper had eight. 

Surtain, Hufanga, McMillian, Greenlaw, Allen and Franklin-Myers are all excellent players.

The Chargers' were the best pass defense the Patriots had seen to that point. The Texans were about two notches above. I would put the Broncos in between LA and Houston.

As you saw, it was no longer fun and games for Drake Maye and the offense against the two best defenses he has faced this season. I know that upset a lot of fans — I had Patriots fans tweeting to me that Maye sucks and McDaniels needs to be fired. Talk about delusional. This is how it goes in the postseason. Did you know the 21 points the Patriots scored offensively were the third-most allowed by the Texans (season average: 15.9)? The Patriots ain't playing the Jets and Dolphins anymore.

What has to stop is Maye's propensity to put the ball in harm's way. You figured he would have addressed the issue after the Chargers game, since he's made those corrections every week this season. It was actually worse against the Texans, when he fumbled four times and lost two of them (he should give his linemen another Christmas present for hopping on his fumbles, especially Wilson last week, and Campbell on Sunday at the NE 3-yard line).

"We talk about not going in the blender, and I think it’s hard," Vrabel said. "They put pressure on us, and we know we’ve got to take care of the ball. Drake knows that, but to be able to stay the course, to trust Kayshon and give him a great ball that was him or nobody. Those guys have kind of done that all year. When we needed a play, they’ve been able to do that for us."

The Broncos' path to an upset on Sunday has to rely on Maye fumbles and, possibly, interceptions. The kid, at 23 in just his second season, is 60 minutes from playing in the Super Bowl. Everything needs to be tightened up.

"We knew (the Texans) were going to be good, and they lived up to the hype, all the statistics and all the ball hunting that we saw on film," Maye said. "They ball hunt. On the edge, they’re tough. I’ve got to do a better job stepping up, and I’ve got to hit some guys downfield when we had our chances.

"But, like I said, we made enough plays. We scored 21 and the defense helped us out with 7. We did what we had to do in the game. The elements were a little tough. I have to be better with the football when I’m taking off and running. From there, just know that the football is the prized possession, and when we don’t turn the ball over and put our defense in bad spots, I like our chances."

And, yeah, it doesn't get any easier for Will Campbell this week, taking on Bonitto. The postseason is just a little bit different than the 32nd-ranked offensive schedule during the regular season, huh?

What a long, strange trip it's been with this team, from the heat of August to the snow on Sunday night. They've gone from plucky upstarts, to overlooked division champions that most figured would be knocked off by Josh Allen in a home AFC Championship Game, and now they're road favorites in the AFC Championship Game against a backup QB with cobwebs on his right arm.

(Oh, and look at Nick Foles off the top rope.)

The Patriots have come circle, during this season, and the postseason. They are now the favorite. They are now the hunted. They now have all the pressure on them.

Don't lose this game. Don't lose to Jarrett Stidham.

That would be one hard, cold winter that came too soon.