Make no mistake, the Patriots blew leads of 21-0 and 24-7 on Sunday due to a failure in all three phases, especially by a defense that could not get off the field or hold the Bills to even one field goal during five consecutive touchdown drives.
But the offense didn't do its part in the second half. It needed to come up with a few more plays to clinch the game, or win it at the end, and they couldn't do it.
The question is why?
Josh McDaniels is getting a lot of scrutiny, especially in regards to the fact that the Patriots ran the ball just three times in the second half, after rushing 22 times for 177 yards in the first half to build the lead.
That's hard to argue against. I was surprised the Bills showed so many two-high safety shells in the second half, and Drake Maye never checked into a run. I'm not sure Maye ever alerted a play in the second half. Was he under orders to just run the play as called? That would be very surprising. Usually in this system, the QB checks to a run if there's a two-shell look, or at least they do it on occasion.
Also, it's difficult for me to criticize the pass-happy approach in the second half because there were plays to make on film. If the Bills were shutting down the pass, then I'd join many in that criticism. But they weren't. The plays were there to be made, for the most part.
I do want to take issue with Maye not being under center more. The Patriots have averaged being under center 46.9% this season. On Sunday, it was just 31.4% — the lowest rate since the Week 1 loss to the Raiders (22.1%), when Maye looked similarly confused and indecisive. It seems that Maye is better under center. Then again, this is also difficult to quibble with because Maye was only under center 39% in the first half, when the Patriots and Maye were cooking on offense. Still, it was just 16.7% in the second half, when the Patriots were always within one score. That's similar to the Raiders game (12.5%). I'd say the evidence is there that McDaniels quickly abandons the under-center game when the offense is struggling. That should change.
I also think McDaniels defaults to putting the game in the hands of the quarterback. Is he ready for that? Well, McDaniels did that in the Week 5 meeting with the Bills, and Maye delivered by lifting the team to victory. So I can understand McDaniels doing it again on Sunday, but it did not pay off in the second half as Maye had his worst stretch of football in his career. In the first half, I graded Maye as having 5.5 plus plays (one elite throw to Kayshon Boutte to open the game), and just one minus play (the 3rd and 1 errant throw to Mack Hollins). In the second half, Maye had one plus play (the block on TreVeyon Henderson's touchdown), and 10 minus plays — five decisions, two throws/decisions, three throws.
Why did Maye struggle so much in the second half? Did the Bills suddenly change up and confuse Maye? Let's break down those plays via print and video analysis, the pre- and post-snap looks, and see if there are any common threads:
THIRD QUARTER
2-11-NE 25 (10:49) D.Maye pass short right to S.Diggs to NE 29 for 4 yards (M.Milano).
Pre-snap look: Two-deep zone (Diggs motion indicator).
Post-snap look: Two-deep zone.
This was one of the bigger plays of the game, as it turns out. CB Tre'Davious White turns his back to Stefon Diggs to defend Mack Hollins' over route. Hunter Henry is supposed to keep Joey Bosa inside to allow Maye to boot to the right. That doesn't happen, but Diggs is wide open. If this ball is placed correctly, Diggs will wide up near midfield with a first down. Instead, it's just 4 yards to set up third and long. You can see Maye slap his thigh in frustration after the play. He knew he missed one.
Minus play: Accuracy.
3-7-NE 29 (10:06) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 20 for -9 yards (M.Milano).
Pre-snap look: Two (deep) man (Stevenson motion).
Post-snap look: Looks like two-man, but could be Cover 6 (quarter-quarter-half).
I don't see anyone being fooled here. This is the first of three plays where Diggs' route running is questionable on crucial downs. Maye is looking hard at Diggs and is expecting him to break to the sideline with CB Taron Johnson playing inside leverage. Diggs, instead, turns in. By the time that happens, Maye is sacked. Given hindsight, Maye should have come off Diggs quicker and hit Hollins on the crosser against a linebacker. He might have picked up the first down.
Minus play: Decision. Diggs shares the blame for this play as the drive ends.
2-4-NE 41 (2:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to M.Hollins.
Pre-snap look: Two man.
Post-snap look: Two man.
After completions to Stevenson (16) and Henderson (6), the Patriots come out in shotgun with both backs in the backfield. Maye does not check into another play. With two high safeties, you probably want to check this play to a run (if Maye has that ability on this play, I don't know). Only one rushing attempt in the third quarter is very questionable, and this is a play you might point to with that.
Nobody is open on this play, as Maye tries to force a pass to Hollins that is high and behind him, and uncatchable.
Minus play: Decision/Throw.
At the very least, Maye needs to give Hollins a chance on a ball to the inside. I think the best decision would have been for Maye to scramble, as there doesn't appear to be a spy on him
2-10-BUF 43 (1:49) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to H.Henry.
Pre-snap look: 1-high man.
Post-snap look: Cover 6.
After a 16-yard pass to Diggs on third down and a throwaway on first down when no one was open and Mike Onwenu allows a pressure (a second play where you might have wanted a run), Maye throws high to Henry and is almost intercepted.
Minus play: Throw.
There's no reason for this incompletion and near-disaster. Henry is wide open, and he just misses him. Henry probably would have gotten about 6 or 7 yards to set up 3rd and short. Instead, it's 3rd and 10.
3-25-NE 42 (1:39) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by T.White at BUF 9. T.White to BUF 9 for no gain(M.Hollins).
Pre-snap look: Two-high prevent zone.
Post-snap look: Two-high prevent zone.
Maye ends up throwing up a 50-50 jump ball to Hollins against the smaller White, which I don't have a huge problem with since the safety to that side (39 Cam Lewis) turned toward Demario Douglas in the middle of the field. But the ball needs to be on the inside to Hollins — he runs down the "red line" — and it sails outside to the sideline, likely because of the wind.
But Douglas (he caught a similar ball against the Bucs) is a better option deep. And both Stevenson and Henry are wide open underneath with not many defenders around. A pass to either gets you closer to field-goal range, possibly a conversion, or close enough to think about going for it on fourth down. Instead, the defense is going right back out.
Minus play: Decision.
FOURTH QUARTER
2-5-NE 32 (6:07) (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 25 for -7 yards (M.Milano).
Pre-snap look: Two-high zone.
Post-snap look: Cover 6 with a zone exchange (Matt Milano rushes and Joey Bosa drops into coverage).
This is the second play where Diggs runs a questionable route, turning into the leverage of the cornerback toward the sideline. He should just be turning to the inside, where no one is, like Kyle Williams does on the other side of the field.
But it doesn't really matter as Maye is working the field to the left and wants Henry, who is covered well. Maye starts to throw to Henry, pulls it down and gets sacked. If he's working Henry's side of the field, he should have quickly thrown to the wide-open Willliams.
Minus play: Decision/sack (Diggs poor route).
I don't see Maye as confused on this play. Just indecisive.
3-12-NE 25 (5:25) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to H.Henry.
Pre-snap look: Two-man, possible blitz with everyone on the line.
Post-snap look: Two-man, AJ Epenesa drops out as a spy.
One of Maye's most decisive throws. Need Henry to make this catch, but there's also no excuse for Maye to throw high and behind Henry. The ball needs to be on the front side of Henry.
Minus play: Throw, and drop for Henry. They both could have been better.
1-10-NE 17 (2:43) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to M.Hollins to NE 22 for 5 yards (Ta.Johnson).
Pre-snap look: Two-deep zone (Stevenson motion).
Post-snap look: Two-deep zone.
Maye wants to go to Henry, but the Bills clamp down on him. At that point, I'm not sure why Maye doesn't hit Diggs behind Henry. It would seem to be a natural progression. The decision to throw to Hollins is fine, but he throws behind him, leaving yards on the field.
Minus play: Decision/throw.
2-5-NE 22 (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 22 for 0 yards (G.Rousseau).
Pre-snap look: Two-deep zone.
Post-snap look: Inverted Tampa 2.
Maye might have been a little confused by this post-snap look, but the real issue is that he leaves the pocket early when he doesn't need to. Even still, Stevenson is right there for a checkdown that would have picked up the first down.
Minus play: Decision/sack.
3-5-NE 22 (2:00) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to T.Henderson.
Pre-snap look: Two-man, possible blitz with everyone on the line.
Post-snap look: Two-man, Epenesa drops out as a spy.
They are trying to get Henderson on a wheel against LB Shaq Thompson, which happened twice earlier in the game. This time, CB Taron Johnson takes Henderson. But Maye still stays locked in on Henderson, ends up throwing an incomplete pass not close to Henderson. Maye doesn't see Kayshon Boutte wide open for the first down, and likely a lot more in YAC.
Minus play: Decision.
4-5-NE 22 (1:54) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to S.Diggs (J.Bosa).
Pre-snap look: One-deep man, possible blitz (Henry motion).
Post-snap look: 1-deep man. Bosa and Thompson drop out into short zone.
Patriots get man coverage, and they have a man-beater dialed up. They ran this play earlier in the game and got yardage. It's designed for either Diggs or Henry. The problem is Diggs is pretty clueless on what he should be doing. Henry's running a crosser, is Diggs supposed to do the same to create a rub route situation? Could he have run a return route to the outside, giving Maye the option to go to Diggs or Henry? Whatever it is, it's a cluster. Maye gets out of the pocket, he's one-on-one with Bosa, who's not the sharpest tool in the drawer. I would have loved to see Maye channel his inner Josh Allen and pump fake Bosa, pick up the first down and live to see another day.
Minus play: Decision, although Diggs factored in heavily.
The bottom line is, I don't see Maye as being overly confused during the second half. He did, at times, lock in to a target — mostly Diggs and Henry — who were either getting a lot of attention (Henry) or letting him down in big spots (Diggs), and he got some tunnel vision. He stopped going through his progressions. This is what we call not seeing the field well.
Do I think that the weather was a factor, as it deteriorated in the second half? Maybe, certainly on the deep ball to Hollins, but not a ton. I think a lot of the errant throws were caused by Maye trying to be too fine with his passes (similar to the Bengals game, also off a long break), and possibly gripping the ball a little tight/feeling the moment. I don't think the conditions were a big issue, but it's possible. We just don't have enough data on Maye in those conditions.
I do wonder if Maye is just not ready to be relied on this much, which would bring in the lack of a running game. McDaniels could do this with Brady, of course. And no one expects Maye to be ready for that, or perfect. I think the OC needs to help the QB a little bit more.
The end result is Maye didn't make enough plays — and they were often there — for the team to win this game. He's not why they lost, of course, but he didn't help them win in the end. And that's for Mike Vrabel, McDaniels and Maye to sort out and get better from the experience. They normally do.
Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (1 out of 5)
This was the second-lowest graded game for Drake Maye this season, second behind only the Raiders game. ... I thought he was a B in the first half — only one of his plus plays was a throw — as he scored on two designed runs, had a great 17-yard scramble (really needed one of those in the second half), and threw a block for Demario Douglas. ... The second half was ugly. This is now the second time in three games (first half vs. Bengals) where Maye has struggled. Both were after long layoffs. Maybe a pattern there.
Running backs (5 out of 5)
Outstanding work by both backs as this feels like the first time they've been able to be a fully-formed "Thunder and Lightning" backfield. Both played their roles well. ... Rhamondre Stevenson broke several tackles and got more yards than was there on runs of 4, 8 and 5 yards. Also had a great blitz pick up. ... We know this about TreVeyon Henderson: if he has a hole, he's going to use his speed to exploit the defense. The first touchdown was just beautifully blocked in every way. The second TD was a terrible defensive play by AJ Espenesa and Maxwell Hairston. And then Henderson did the rest, showing another gear, and was assisted by Maye. Henderson didn't hold up in pass pro once, but Maye should have gotten rid of the ball.
Receivers (3 out of 5)
As we illustrated, Stefon Diggs had issues on three routes in the second half, and he also factored into a half stuffed run. ... Kayshon Boutte had the great diving catch on the first play, and had a good block on Maye's first touchdown, as did Hunter Henry. ... Henry had some issues on the crack toss plays, allowing a 5-yard loss, a hurry on the Bosa play on the first drive of the second half, and the 3rd and 12 drop. ... Needed more Demario Douglas in this game to help get off man coverage.
Offensive line (5 out of 5)
This was the best game for the offensive line all season, as they were only responsible for three pressures (two on Mike Onwenu) and dominated in the run game in the first half as McDaniels showed some new things with both backs in the backfield and pulling both tackles.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (0 out of 5)
Got dominated in the run game and barely got any pressure against Allen, especially in the second half. ... Want to know why the Patriots couldn't get off the field? They didn't wall up against the run — all the tackles and edges were on different levels as the Bills' line dominated the trenches — and the edges couldn't beat LT Dion Dawkins and RT Spencer Brown. Those guys are good, but K'Lavon Chaisson and, especially, Harold Landry weren't much better after the bye week. .... Khyiris Tonga and Christian Barmore were awful against the run in the second half. They got owned.
Linebackers (2 out of 5)
Christian Elliss was outstanding, especially on that three-play sequence where he had a pass tackle, pass defensed and drew a hold. His only issue was being a step late to cover James Cook on his touchdown. ... Jack Gibbens had a tough time getting off blocks and missed two big tackles. No wonder they signed Chad Muma this week. He was put in a bad situation on the 3rd and 14 touchdown against Dawson Knox. ... I don't know what Marte Mapu and Jaylinn Hawkins were doing on the wide open 24-yard catch by Dalton Kincaid.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
Hawkins had the Kincaid play and missed the tackle on Cook's 11-yard TD run. ... Christian Gonzalez had two blown coverages that didn't bite him. He got rubbed on the opening Brandin Cooks drop, not his fault. ... Marcus Jones, who was playing hurt, got run around for 9 yards, allowed catches of 13 and 27 yards, had the iffy penalty and allowed a touchdown. Rough one, but he was gutting it out.
THREE UP
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Contributed in a variety of ways to get the edge.
RB TreVeyon Henderson: Had just the two explosive plays, but gosh darn he's fast.
Offensive line: Great with the run and pass, and it was everyone.
THREE DOWN
QB Drake Maye: Needed him to make one or two more plays in the second half, and he couldn't deliver.
DT Khyiris Tonga: It pains me, and he was coming off an injury, but he was horrible in the second half. Kept getting caught going up the field.
DE Harold Landry: Could go with a lot of defenders, Stef Diggs or Hunter Henry, but this team needs more than a half sack from Landry or they're going nowhere.
