I always start Nerd Numbers with one or two statistical nuggets about the Patriots. But this week, I'm leading the column with it as a way to get into some conversations I've had over the last couple of weeks about this team and, especially, Drake Maye.
Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.0) and passing yards (3,130) in 2025. The 71% would be the highest completion percentage in a season in Patriots history. Yep, better than the unapproachable Tom Brady, the current record-holder at 68.9%. That happened in the unforgettable 2007 season. You know the one I'm referring to...16-0...a trip to the Super Bowl and then...well, as Brady said recently, the one game that truly leaves a mark.
If Maye can maintain his current seat at the statistical table, he would be the 6th QB since 1980 to lead the NFL in completion percentage and passing yards in the same season. The others: Drew Brees (2011), Brady (2007), Peyton Manning (2003), Kurt Warner (2001), and Brett Favre (1998).
"I've said this to you before, but to have a quarterback who can create, is accurate, and can access all areas of the field...that's a blessing," said a defensive coordinator who has coached against Maye. "But what's really been impressive is how hard he is to fool. That doesn't mean we didn't, but clearly, he's a quick study."
"He's at the top of that next tier of quarterbacks," he added, and before I could say a word, said, "Mahomes, Allen, Stafford, Lamar (Jackson), Burrow - they've all done it longer. If he (Maye) keeps playing this well, he'll be in that conversation. I'm sure they're thrilled he's their guy. I would be, too."
Maye has 200+ passing yards in all 12 of the Patriots' games in 2025. He is the only player to do that this season. The last time this happened was with Mahomes in 2022. Guess what happened that season? Mahomes won the MVP and the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl.
"Here's one thing that stands out to me - he shrugs off a bad play or a bad series," said a defensive assistant whose team played the Pats this year. "Young quarterbacks can let that snowball on them. Veteran QBs, too. Not this kid, at least not against us or the tape I studied of him. That suggests a level of confidence and calmness. That's one hell of a foundation."
Some other 'nuggets" that caught my ear, if you will.
- On Mike Vrabel, an AFC front office exec told me, "I've always thought guys should take a year between jobs. Figure out what went right, what went wrong, and experience the league from a different vantage point. I don't know how much that time in Cleveland changed him - though I did see him say it reaffirmed his love for coaching - but I think you see a guy who's energized and whose team reflects that."
- On Stefon Diggs, that same defensive coach told me, "Every young QB needs a receiver with this type of profile. Diggs has seen every coverage and played in just about every situation. He's not 2021 Diggs, but he's still good. Smart. A technician. And we know he's a competitor. The risk (ACL/reputation) has been worth it so far." Maye has an 81.3 completion percentage targeting Diggs (61 rec on 75 targets). That's the second-best duo in the league, trailing only the Stafford-to-Puka Nacua connection.
- One pro scout noted the Patriots look "tired", especially on defense. "They miss Milton Williams. That guy puts it out there every single snap. They miss that life." The Pats hit the bye after Monday night's game, so perhaps that will be the needed elixir. "Having the late bye sucks, especially when you're in the middle of the year and everyone's hurting. But now? You're almost there, and it could be an advantage if they handle it right." I anticipate Vrabel giving the team the majority of next week off.
'A DIFFICULT JOURNEY'
After a surprising season with Sam Darnold at the helm, the Vikings let him leave via free agency. It wasn't clear-cut. The team had spent a 2024 first-round pick on J.J. McCarthy, but two knee surgeries derailed a rookie campaign spent entirely on IR. Minnesota had brief talks with Darnold about a return, but he wanted a long-term commitment, and that wasn't going to happen with McCarthy looming. Third-stringer Daniel Jones (yes, that Daniel Jones) was closer to remaining, but he, too, felt like he wouldn't have much staying power. That left McCarthy as the starter, almost by default. That hasn't gone well, even with quarterback whisperer Kevin O'Connell calling the plays.
The numbers aren't kind to McCarthy. He is the author of three of the worst 20 games by EPA among NFL signal callers this season, and among the 69 QBs who have attempted at least one pass, he ranks 68th in total EPA, ahead of only rookie Cam Ward. On top of that, McCarthy missed a handful of games with a high-ankle sprain and is now in concussion protocol after a 23-6 loss to the Packers.
"I've got to be better," McCarthy (6 TDs, 10 INTs this season) said. "I've got to do a lot of things better."
“It’s about not putting the game in (McCarthy’s) hands where the variance of a young quarterback will cost our whole team,” O’Connell said. “There’s a needle to thread there.”
We've seen how difficult that can be, either in our own backyard (Mac Jones, Maye as a rookie) or elsewhere. Hell, the NFL landscape is littered with so many could-have-beens and never-were quarterbacks that franchises drafted but couldn't develop, either because they got the initial evaluation wrong or...
“I believe that organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations," O'Connell said back in September of 2024. "And that’s not there’s no specific example in my mind that I could give you of a team or a quarterback just overall 30,000-foot view.
“It’s important to understand that every one of these guys is on a journey — a very difficult journey — and that they need support and teammates around them. They need the systems in place to ultimately maximize who they are and what their potential is, because you’re still drafting players rich off of potential. And then everything that happens from that moment to when that potential becomes is really on the organization.”
Now O'Connell is trying to walk that walk after talking the talk. That's difficult, because his team is 4-7, and it's hard to sell to the rest of the players that this quarterback, who someday may find his way, is the best choice in the here and now.
“I hate to lose,” Justin Jefferson said following the defeat to Green Bay. “I hate to be in this type of situation. I hate feeling the way we feel. I hate coming into this locker room, seeing the down faces and the down energy.”
If McCarthy can't play this weekend, the Vikings will turn to undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, who began his collegiate career at UNH before finishing at the University of Minnesota.
RECORD-BREAKER?
When you think of the best wide receivers in the league right now, where does your brain take you? Give me Ja'Marr Chase or Jefferson, and I'm good to go. But neither one of those guys is having the kind of year Jaxson Smith-Njigba is.
The Seahawks' third-year pass catcher is tied for second in the league in receptions (80), but also has a whopping 1,313 yards through 11 weeks, setting a new franchise record. Smith-Njigba is on pace to break Calvin Johnson's single-season mark (1.964 yards) set back in 2012.
"It's unbelievable, man," Darnold said. "Just the way that he's been able to play this year, every single game. It's tough to be that consistent."
"I'm happy for JSN," head coach Mike Macdonald said. "He's doing an incredible job, brings it every day, and he's a great teammate, which is awesome. So you're really happy for him.
"Honestly, he probably could get (a game ball) every game. What is this, eight games with 100-plus? Yeah, he's a tremendous football player."
Smith-Njigba does, in fact, have at least eight games of 100-plus yards receiving this season. That's impressive considering how much attention he's drawn, especially when it became clear that his 1,000-yard season a year ago was no fluke. But when you combine great hands, precise route running (he came into the league as a plus player in that regard), and an ability to rise up in the moment, well, the Seahawks aren't surprised, so neither should we.
"I already knew he was going to be capable of doing stuff like this," draftmate and teammate Devon Witherspoon said. "I mean, it's just hard to guard him, bro. When he gets open, he's just so efficient in what he does and then he's got a like a great catch radius. So I'm just a fan watching just like y'all when he's out there, man."
"He's done an incredible job making the most of his opportunities," said Cooper Kupp, the 2021 OPOY. "Over and over again, there's been games where we're not throwing the ball a ton. But every opportunity he has to make a play, he's doing it. That's hard to do in this league. Everyone knows the passing game is obviously going to be going through him and he just continues to make plays. It's pretty impressive to watch."
Kupp was signed to a healthy free agent deal with hopes of giving Darnold another high-level option in the passing game. Unfortunately, his body hasn't been willing (another bullet the Pats dodged as they had a strong interest). Kupp has gone five straight games with two or fewer catches, promising rookie Tory Horton is on IR with a hamstring, and trade deadline acquisition Rashid Shaheed has just three catches in three games. What does that mean? It's all JSN all the time. Smith-Njigba currently leads the NFL in target share (37.2%) and would be the first player in the Super Bowl era to lead the NFL in receiving yards while playing for the team with the lowest pass rate (Seattle throws just 48.9% of the time).
“He’s the greatest player I’ve ever played with,” said receiver Jake Bobo. “Some of the stuff he does I’ve never seen before, nor will I ever see again.”
Smith-Njigba remains humble, calling his record-setting performance "a team award" while praising offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, Darnold, the offensive line, and the other receivers. "It doesn't happen without them."
The Seahawks host the Vikings on Sunday.
BIG, BAD BRONCOS
Hard not to notice what Vance Joseph has going on in Denver. To the surprise of some, the Broncos' defensive coordinator - who was the franchise's head coach for two seasons (2017 and 2018) - has modified his blitz-heavy scheme from a year ago and is getting even better results this season, harkening back to the Orange Crush era, only better.
The Broncos lead the NFL with 49 sacks (on pace for a league-record 76) and have piled up 95 QB hits (for comparison's sake, the Pats have 25 sacks...). The last team with more sacks in the first 11 games of the season was the 1989 Vikings (53), who had Chris Doleman finish with 21 sacks and Keith Millard with 18.
Joseph is the architect of this scheme, which still blitzes early and often. But he varies looks and coverages, and this defense has backboned the Broncos' 9-2 start.
"I don’t call a lot of man," Joseph said. "What we do is mostly pressure up front with matchup principles in the back end. It’s like playing a box-and-one defense in basketball. It’s zoned inside and match outside. These days, the beauty of playing great defense in this league is the ability to have different structures. If you can get [defensive backs] close [to wide receivers] without giving it that ‘man’ tag, that’s the expertise.
“Because when you call man, the player has to cover both sides of the route. In this league, that’s difficult. Everyone has great receivers. The quarterbacks are so accurate. With what we call, we’re giving the player one side of the route. And we preach leverage. If you win your leverage outside, and the receiver breaks inside, you’re gonna have a teammate there. It can look like man – but it’s not man. That’s the beauty of what we do. That’s the secret.”
Of course, it helps having reigning defensive player of the year Patrick Surtain at corner (has missed three games with a pec injury) and a heavily targeted but, by the numbers, highly successful second CB in Riley Moss. Throw in the instinctive Talanoa Hufanga at safety, and that's an excellent back end. But make no mistake: what makes this group shine is that front 7.
“We’re built from the front to the back," Hufanga said. "The front end, those guys understand their job is to create havoc. On the back end, we understand we gotta go cover for a little bit. Just a little bit. We do that, the guys on the front end will get home [get to the quarterback]. It works.”
Boy, does it ever. The Broncos have 10 players with at least 2 sacks, headlined by Nick Bonitto's 9.5, Jonathon Cooper's 7.5, and Zach Allen's 6. And while their talent is key - "it's players, not plays" - Joseph's aggressive approach has paid off. It may also lead to him getting a second chance to be a head coach. His name has already been linked to several vacancies (NYG/Tenn) or potential vacancies.
NERD NUMBERS
- The Pats are tied for NFL record with 23+ points scored and 23-or-fewer allowed in 9 straight games. The previous 2 teams to have a streak reach 8+ games went on to win a Super Bowl or a Championship: The 1961 Houston Oilers won the AFL title, and the 1984 49ers won Super Bowl XIX.
- Mike Vrabel is looking to become only the 4th head coach in the Super Bowl Era to have the NFL’s outright best record in their first season as head coach with a franchise. The last HC to do so was Jim Caldwell with the Colts in 2009.
- Kenneth Gainwell has had 100+ scrimmage yards in back-to-back games (105 in Wk 11, 122 Wk 12). The Steelers running back had 0 career regular-season games with 100+ scrimmage yards from 2021 to 2024 with the Eagles.
- Ladd McConkey (1,793) needs 37 receiving yards to pass Keenan Allen for 2nd-most receiving yards by a Chargers player in their first 2 career seasons (John Jefferson is 1st with 2,091). McConkey (136) needs 3 receptions to pass HOF LaDainian Tomlinson for 2nd-most catches by a Chargers player in their first 2 career seasons (Allen is 1st with 148).
- Arizona's Michael Wilson is 1 of 2 players with 10+ receptions and 100+ yards in consecutive games in 2025. The other? The Rams' Nacua in Weeks 3-4.
- The Jets (1) are the first team in NFL history with 1 or fewer takeaways in the first 11 games. Their only takeaway this season came in Week 6 against Denver. NY also has just 19 sacks in 2025 (5th-fewest in NFL).
- Meanwhile, per Next Gen State, the Texans' Will Anderson has 59 QB pressures in 2025 (3rd in NFL behind Micah Parsons and Aidan Hutchinson: 60) and 10.5 sacks, while teammate Danielle Hunter has 48 QB pressures in 2025 (7th in NFL) and 11 sacks.
