For a team coming off its worst season in more than a half-century, it is not, in actuality, all doom and gloom for the Red Sox.
Yes, there are a myriad of areas on the major league roster that require upgrades, if not outright overhauls. There's the sad track record over the last 15 or so years when it comes to developing starting pitching. And yes, it's been a long time since the franchise has been this out of favor with the New England sports fan.
But there is some hope, and that hope was on display at the recently-concluded Instructional League program in Fort Myers. The Instructional League program is held every year in the fall, of course, but it seemed more needed and necessary than ever following the pandemic-ravaged 2020 season.
With no minor league season taking place, dozens and dozens of Red Sox minor leaguers had no formal outlet with which to advance their development. The ones closest to reaching the major leagues -- and a handful of the most elite prospects at the lowest levels -- participated in the team's alternate training site at McCoy Stadium in Pawtucket. But even there, it was a controlled environment: intra-squad games had to replace actual minor league games and evaluation was admittedly limited.
Faced with that, the team held its Instructional League for the rest of its minor leaguers in Fort Myers, with strict protocols in place. It was a chance to see a few alternate site players in a different environment, and, more to the point, a lot of players who weren't in Pawtucket.
And according to one Red Sox official, the reviews were glowing.
"The system was way better than I thought it was going to be,'' the official gushed. "That was really encouraging. I adamantly disagree with the public ranking of our system, based on what I saw. No way we're (ranked) in the 20s (out of 30 systems); no way.
"There's some really good young Latin players. There's a mix of different areas that we have in there now, which is good. It was impressive.''
Some thumbnail reports on those who stood out from the evaluator's perspective:
1b Triston Casas, first-round pick 2018. "He's a dude. I agree with those who say he could be the next Freddie Freeman. Same swing, same body. It was eerie, actually.''
OF Gilberto Jimenez, international free agent 2017 from the Dominican Republic, signed for $10,000. "He looks like an absolute beast. I don't think it's necessarily a power swing, but he's got an uncanny feel for putting the ball in play and putting pressure on the opposing defense.''
RHP Chih-Jung Liu, signed for $750,000 last winter out of Taiwan, Liu's velocity wasn't eye-popping in the Instructional League. "He didn't show the big, upper-90s fastball, but he had six pitches that were pretty impressive. He's a little guy (6-0 feet), but he's very athletic.''
3B Blaze Jordan, drafted in the third round last June. Jordan's raw plus-plus power is eye-popping. "Very impressive.''
SS Brainer Bonaci, signed as international free agent for $290,000 in 2018 from Venezuela. "Switch-hitting, young Latin shortstop.''
3B: Ceddanne Rafaela, signed as international free agent out of Curacao in 2017 for $10,000: "I think he could be our next Mauricio Dubon-type (an athletic, versatile infielder).''
RHP Bradley Blalock, 32nd round pick, 2019: "I think he's a sleeper. I like him a lot. Definitely has a starter's look. He's got a sneaky ball and a good feel to change speeds.''
LHP Brendan Cellucci, 12th round pick, 2019 draft, signed for $345,000. "A power lefty reliever with a live arm.''
LHP Jeremy Wu-Yelland, fourth-round pick out of the University of Hawaii in 2020, signed for $200,000. "He got up to 97 mph, with really good stuff.''
RHP Brayan Bello, international free agent signed for $28,000 in 2017. "He's getting a lot of attention. He's up to 97 mph with the ability to change speeds.''
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I have no way of knowing what Theo Epstein's next career move will be. I think it's a safe bet that Epstein himself doesn't know what his next career move will be, even if he undoubtedly has already run through some potential options in his head. That would only be natural.
My best guess -- and it's only that -- would be for Epstein to involve himself with either an expansion group or with an ownership group looking to purchase a team. That would present Epstein with an opportunity for two things that are said to appeal to him: an ownership stake, and complete control in running an organization. And by "running an organization,'' that means what it says: being team president and CEO. Merely running the day-to-day baseball operations of a club has already been done -- twice. There's no challenge left there.
When Epstein held a press conference earlier this week to announce his departure from the Cubs, he made headlines when he expressed concern for how the game has been trending.
"It's the greatest game in the world,” Epstein said Tuesday. “But there are some threats to it because of the way the game is evolving, and I take some responsibility for that because the executives like me who have spent a lot of time using analytics to try to optimize individual and team performance have unwittingly had a negative impact on the aesthetic value of the game, and the entertainment value of the game.
"Clearly, the strikeout rate’s a little bit out of control, and we need to find a way to get more action in the game, get the ball in play more often, allow players to show their athleticism some more, and give fans more of what they want.''
Epstein's words here carry significant weight. This isn't Goose Gossage or some other professional crank railing about the game being ruined by "nerds and their computers.'' No, this comes from someone inside the revolution that began some two decades ago and has, in his estimation, gone too far.
Good for Epstein for speaking this and bonus points for acknowledging his culpability. There are few figures in the game more self-aware.
But naturally, this led to a gazillion columns being written, all of which espoused the same thought: Theo Epstein for commissioner!
Sorry, that's not happening. Certainly not on Epstein's timetable. If he takes a year off to refresh and spend time with his family before diving back in, that timing doesn't line up well. Rob Manfred has a contract which runs through 2024, and if you think owners are going to move on from Manfred, pay him the remainder of his substantial contract and hand the keys over to Epstein, well, you couldn't be more wrong.
First, while Epstein cares deeply about the game and its future, why would he undertake the kind of job that would involve lots of meetings with corporate interests, lobbyists and others? Does that sound like Epstein's idea of a good time?
Also, recall that Epstein chafed being under the thumb of former Red Sox president Larry Lucchino when he was the Red Sox' GM, going so far as to walk away until he received assurances from John Henry that he could run Baseball Operations without undue interference. And now, the same guy who quit in protest when he felt big-footed by one executive is going to willingly accept a position in which he has 30 owners dictating their every whim? I think not.
Finally, there's the matter of Epstein's politics, which are well-known. In future collective bargaining talks, does it seem likely that Epstein would do the bidding of a bunch of billionaires, while attempting to stomp on the rank-and-file labor which is the game's true asset? No.
While we tend to romanticize the position of baseball commissioner -- hoping for more Bart Giamatti and less Bud Selig -- the fact is that the job is, first and foremost, about making lots of money for the owners. Period. Full stop.
It isn't, like it or not, about making the product on the field more aesthetically pleasing. It's about the bottom line, and using that as a measuring stick, Manfred has done his job well. Even in the midst of a pandemic, he's negotiated new broadcast deals which are of far greater value than the expiring ones. And keeping revenue flowing to the owners remains both the primary responsibility of the commissioner and the surest way to ensure self[preservation.
That being said, the fact that Epstein publicly expressed concern about the game shouldn't be taken lightly.
If Manfred is smart, he'll approach Epstein about heading up a committee to study these issues -- with the promise that recommendations will be given every measure of consideration for adoption. Epstein could have input in selecting the rest of the committee and be given free rein to proceed.
Putting Epstein in charge and valuing his input would result in an unflinching look at the game and how it could improve. In turn, that would result in increased popularity, help expand the game's appeal to younger fans, and, indirectly, lead to increasing revenue.
A better product. A more profitable business. And recognition that the game needs attention -- now.
Sounds like a win-win for all involved.
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As the Indians continue to line up potential suitors for a trade involving Francisco Lindor, some have suggested that the Red Sox would represent a logical landing spot. Bradford Doolittle of ESPN.com had Boston listed as one of the top five destinations for Lindor.
Doolittle argued that the Sox could extend Lindor by giving him the kind of deal that Mookie Betts turned down, shift Xander Bogaerts to third and move Rafael Devers across the infield.
A few issues here:
- After failing to get Betts -- a superior player, by the way, to Lindor -- to a long-term deal and unloading salary to get under the CBT this past February, do the Red Sox really want to turn around and get themselves tied into a six- or eight-year mega deal? Occasionally, there are big players worth this kind of investment (again, Betts would have been one)? And what message would it send that while the Red Sox wouldn't/couldn't extend a player whom they had drafted and developed and helped them win a World Series, they would do so for a player brand new to the organization?
- The Red Sox have a very good shortstop in Bogaerts. No, he's not as accomplished a defender at the position as Lindor -- few are. But he's at least adequate at the position and the different between the two offensively -- .805 OPS, 113 OPS+ for Bogaerts; .833 OPS, 117 OPS+ for Lindor -- is relatively small. Plus, this would involve the Red Sox having to give up, at minimum, two good prospects simply to obtain Lindor. Think: Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran. The former could perhaps take over at short while Duran addresses the Indians' need for an outfielder. Subtracting two of the team's Top 10 prospects at a time when the organization is trying to rebuild the minor league inventory doesn't make sense.
- It would send the wrong message to Bogaerts, who signed a team-friendly deal in the first weeks of the 2019 season, at below-market value. Bogaerts initiated the negotiations, saying he wanted to remain with the Red Sox for the remainder of his career. And now, less than two years later, the Red Sox should make a deal which involves moving him off his natural position to accommodate someone else? (Admittedly, this wouldn't be as misguided as moving him to third to make room for Stephen Drew. But it would still be a mistake).
- The Red Sox have a number of needs far more pressing than upgrading at shortstop. If they're going to acquire a player in his prime, reward him with a nine-figure contract extension and sacrifice a number of prospects to do it, it should be for a starting pitcher -- not a position they already have more-than-capably covered for the foreseeable future.
- Lindor would presumably be seeking a deal with an AAV (average annual value) of $30 million more. Currently, the Red Sox are paying Bogaerts an average of $20 million. And while Lindor is the superior overall player, is he enough of an upgrade to motivate the Sox to pay him half-again what Bogaerts is currently making? Hardly.
- Even if he were willing to move to third base, could Bogaerts play the position? Or would he see this as a slap in the face and exercise the opt-out clause in his contract after the 2022 season? Meanwhile, moving Bogaerts to third and Devers to first creates two additional problems. First, it leaves no place top power prospect Bobby Dalbec, at least not while J.D. Martinez is with the club. And secondly, giving up Downs leaves the Red Sox without future options at second base.
