With less than one month remaining until the start of NBA training camp, it seems likely that there won’t be any blockbuster roster moves around the league before opening night. However, in the wake of the Kawhi Leonard trade, there remains a bit of uncertainty around an always intriguing question across the association: What next big name will be on the move?
For the first time in years, there is no clear-cut candidate on that front. Most rebuilding teams have largely rid themselves of high-priced talent already, while the rest of the NBA landscape has their sights set on competing for a playoff spot, a goal that should be a challenge, particularly in a loaded Western Conference.
While there is no guarantee that any big names will be moved during the regular season (which was the case last year as well), it’s a good bet that some teams will be looking to retool on the fly as the optimism of the offseason starts to fade and reality sets in. So what premier players are candidates to hear their names pop up in trade rumors this upcoming season? Let’s look at some names to keep an eye on and evaluate what could trigger their availability.
Kemba Walker: The undersized point guard’s name was discussed at the trade deadline last February in reports that Hornets CEO Michael Jordan did his best to downplay. However as the 28-year-old enters the final year of his $12 million per season bargain contract, the pressure is on the Hornets to return to the postseason with a new coach and front office at the helm. That’s no sure thing with an aging roster that has plenty of holes in an improving Eastern Conference. If the Hornets aren’t on track to get back to the playoffs through 40 games, moving Walker is probably going to be back on the table as an option for the Hornets in January or February, instead of potentially losing him for nothing.
The 6-foot-1 guard is not good enough to be the No. 1 option on a contender and Charlotte’s cap sheet is a mess for the next couple of seasons anyway with plenty of overpriced deals (Nicholas Batum, Bismack Biyombo) on the books. Paying Walker over $30 million a season won’t help on that front and that’s probably what it is going to take to bring him back in a market next summer that’s expected to be flush with max cap room for several teams. If the Hornets show some progress this year with above .500 play, that might be enough for the franchise to keep things together for one more year and recommit to Walker. Otherwise, they could shop around for him around again and take the best offer on the table. The point guard’s cheap deal will help to make all kinds of trades workable since it won’t take much to match his $12-million salary. For a franchise that needs to reboot anyway, getting assets for Walker could be a critical first step.
Marc Gasol/Mike Conley: Memphis could have blown things up this summer but they committed to making one more run at the postseason behind the core of Gasol and Conley. Whether or not that is a smart option in a loaded Western Conference is another question. Memphis brought aboard a couple of nice additions with Kyle Anderson and Garrett Temple but it’s unclear whether that’s enough to push them back into the top-8 in the conference.
They also drafted their likely center of the future in Jaren Jackson at No. 4 overall, which could signal the beginning of the end for Gasol in Memphis. The veteran center has two years left on his deal ($24.5 million per year) but the final season is a player option. Gasol won’t want to spend the twilight of his career on a rebuilding team and that seems to be the route the Grizzlies are eventually headed after crippling themselves with the disastrous Chandler Parsons max deal a couple years ago. Conley Jr. will probably be the tougher piece to get solid value for due to his contract size ($97 million remaining over next three years), which makes him likelier to stay in the interim. However, another ugly start in the Western Conference will make Gasol a likely target as the trade deadline approaches next summer.
The other motivation in play for Memphis will be ridding themselves of their first-round pick obligation to the Celtics. As long as they finish out of the bottom eight in the lottery this year, they can send that pick over this summer and will have more motivation to tank (and move core pieces) next summer since they won’t have to worry about losing future (and less heavily protected) first-round picks to Boston in 2020 or beyond. Barring a huge turnaround, Gasol doesn’t seem likely to be in Memphis beyond next season (barring injury), so the Grizzlies will have to make a call on whether they want to avoid the possibility of letting him walk for nothing.
Jimmy Butler: One year after getting sent to Minnesota, the shooting guard turned down an extension offer from the Wolves for the same reasons that Kyrie Irving turned one down from the Celtics (the money didn’t make sense for him to commit). That situation shouldn’t cause much alarm up north, but the fact that the likes of the Knicks, Lakers and Nets are lining up max cap space next summer should make Tom Thibodeau feel a bit uneasy after a disappointing first season with his new core. Butler and Andrew Wiggins didn’t mesh well on many nights and while Karl-Anthony Towns is a nice building block, it’s unclear whether he and Butler will be able to make some noise in a loaded Western Conference. While the odds of an in-season Butler deal seems low (Thibodeau is also calling the shots in the front office so he’s unlikely to move his best wing at midseason) it’s a consideration that he’ll have to make if this season heads south before the trade deadline. Minnesota isn’t going to have any cap room if Butler walks, so if the All-Star signals he won’t be re-signing, Minnesota will be best off moving him while they can ahead of the deadline.
Hassan Whiteside: He really doesn’t belong on this list, since he’s not a real star. Whiteside is an overpaid center that the Heat would love to move. They’ve tried and failed this offseason to do that but there’s no doubt they will keep trying for the final two years of his deal (earning an average of $25 million per season). Whether or not Pat Riley adds enough sweetener for another team to bite on a trade package with the 29-year-old remains to be seen, but it seems unlikely given Whiteside’s offensive limitations. Why pay a guy that kind of money when you can’t play him during crunch time?
Kevin Love: The Cavs just signed the power forward to an extension last month but that only prevents them from dealing him for six months per CBA rules. The added years on the deal make Love a potential commodity in the trade market if he can start putting up bigger offensive numbers again with LeBron James out of town. While Cleveland’s front office may be making an honest go of it to make the playoffs this year in the East with veterans like Tristan Thompson, George Hill, Kyle Korver and company still under contract, the best route for this team to take over the long term is hitting the reset button. If Love can fetch good value in February or next summer, it would be the final step for them to beginning a rebuild around Colin Sexton.
Will Celtics be interested in any of these names if they become available?
Highly unlikely. The C’s payroll will be stretched thin after this season and none of these names are upgrades over any of the team’s current core of All-Stars in Irving, Horford and Hayward. The understanding here is that Boston will be holding out for a superstar with their remaining assets down the line (i.e. Anthony Davis). None of these guys come close to matching that kind of impact.
Other NBA News and Notes
- A good rule change by the NBA’s competition committee this week, changing the shot clock reset to just 14 seconds instead of 24 seconds after an offensive rebound. It won’t matter much on a possession-to-possession basis, but it will help provide some more entertaining basketball late in games when a team leading a game is trying to run down the clock after an offensive board. That should create fewer situations where intentional fouling is necessary.
- Still waiting on a decision from Manu Ginobili regarding his status with the Spurs for next season. The latest reports indicate that there is a good chance the 41-year-old will hang it up but would be great to see one final farewell run from the Argentine legend.
- Least shocking news of the summer: The Lakers weren’t pleased that Paul George wasn’t even willing to take a meeting with them this summer before signing with the Thunder. Can you imagine how bad the Lakers’ summer would have looked if they didn’t snag LeBron James? Just the latest example of how much teams are playing with fire by hoarding cap room if they can’t get anyone to use it on.
- The dance continues for Dwyane Wade and the Heat regarding the return of the shooting guard to South Beach for another year. Wade’s probably angling for Miami’s mid-level exception. The guess here is he doesn’t get it with the team already in luxury tax territory. That could change though if Pat Riley finds a way to dump some salary.
