MLB Notebook: Craig Breslow still believes in Red Sox; Could summer trade save their season?

The Red Sox are two months into the season and find themselves in a familiar position: looking up at the rest of the American League East standings.

Boston enters Sunday’s series finale against the Guardians at 24-33, good for last place in the division and 12 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

Despite the disappointing record and an offense that has scored the second-fewest runs in the American League, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow remains confident the Red Sox can still work their way back into the postseason picture.

The Red Sox begin the day four games behind the final American League Wild Card spot, a manageable deficit with more than four months remaining in the season. While the club’s offensive inconsistency has been its biggest obstacle, Breslow believes the combination of a strong pitching staff, emerging young talent, and potential roster additions can keep Boston in the playoff race.

At 24-33, the Red Sox have little margin for error and will need their offense to take a significant step forward if they hope to climb back into contention over the summer months.

"I do, yes. I still have a lot of confidence and a lot of belief in the players that we have in the clubhouse and in the staff and the work that they're doing," Breslow said. "We've got to win games. There's no question about that. And we've got plenty of work to do ahead of us, but when you look back at the last month, I think the bats are starting to come together. Some guys are getting going. We've seen what Jarren [Duran] can do at the top of the lineup when he's getting on base a couple times a game and starting to swing it. And some of the guys that have come up, whether it's Sogy [Nick Sogard] or Mickey [Gasper], have lengthened the lineup out a little bit. And I think we're going to continue to pitch really well."

From the casual Red Sox fan who checks in a few times a week to the diehard who watches all 162 games, it's becoming increasingly difficult to find anyone who truly believes in the roster Breslow assembled over the winter. 

The Sox have spent the first two months of the season showing flashes at times, but not enough consistency to create meaningful momentum. Boston can pitch and has a good defense, but is that enough to make a run from June through the dog days of summer? At some point, optimism has to give way to reality, and right now the reality is that Boston looks more like a team treading water than one positioned to contend.

"We are aggressively trying to improve our team," Breslow said on WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show on Thursday. "And certainly adding a bat, adding offense, is one way to do that. We're not gonna be closed off to other ways. And I think the possibility that that could be an addition from outside the organization is real."

The Red Sox desperately need more offense, and that was true even before Trevor Story landed on the injured list with a sports hernia and Roman Anthony was sidelined with a finger injury. The bigger question is where that additional offense is going to come from. While fans may be clamoring for a major addition, Breslow downplayed the likelihood of a blockbuster move in the immediate future, noting that many clubs around the league are not yet in selling mode. With the trade deadline still weeks away and few impact bats readily available, the Red Sox may have little choice but to look internally and hope several underperforming hitters begin producing at a higher level.

"But when we're having conversations with other teams, as all teams do," Breslow said, "there aren't too many that are in a position to commit to a path in 2026, because there's not a ton of separation across the teams in the American League, right? There's four above .500 and then there's a bunch of teams that are sitting around saying, 'We haven't played very well, but this thing hasn't gotten away from us yet."

If you look at the standings, unfortunately for those hoping for a dramatic shakeup, Breslow isn’t wrong. A handful of American League teams remain within striking distance of the final Wild Card spot. The Athletics, Rangers, Orioles, Twins, Astros, and Red Sox are separated by just a few games, with the gap ranging from a half-game to roughly four games.

The parity across the league is remarkable, and it’s the very thing the Red Sox are clinging to as they try to remain relevant in the playoff race. Despite their flaws and inconsistent play, Boston remains within striking distance largely because so many other contenders have struggled to create separation. For now, the hope inside the organization is that a hot stretch can quickly vault the club up the standings and into postseason position.

I’m not a huge proponent of hypothetical trades; I leave that to the aggregators on social media, but it’s worth nothing that there’s players who could be available in the coming weeks and if the Sox continue to linger, Breslow could consider a splash and see how things go over the final few months of the season. 

Here’s a look at players that could be available and whom Breslow should be kicking the tires on in the coming weeks. 

Royce Lewis / 3B / Minnesota Twins

The Twins optioned Royce Lewis to Triple-A St. Paul earlier this month, and all he’s done since is remind everyone why he was once viewed as one of baseball’s brightest young stars.

In 11 games, Lewis is hitting .318 with seven home runs, 13 RBI, three doubles, and a 1.252 OPS. The production has been eye-popping, but it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s fixed.

The former No. 1 overall pick struggled mightily before his demotion, batting just .163/.261/.279 in 31 games and 119 plate appearances. While Lewis has never been a particularly high-strikeout hitter, posting a 21% strikeout rate from 2022-25, that number ballooned to 31.1% this season.

The underlying metrics paint a concerning picture. His chase rate climbed to 32.8%, well above the 28.2% mark he posted during his breakout 2022-23 stretch, while his in-zone contact rate dropped from 83.7% to 78.3%. More alarming was his ability to make contact on pitches outside the strike zone, which cratered from 59.1% to just 44%.

Since reaching the majors, injuries have repeatedly derailed his development. Lewis has torn the ACL in his right knee twice, suffered multiple hamstring injuries, dealt with a quad strain, and earlier this year sustained a left knee sprain. The physical toll has prevented him from establishing the consistency many expected when Minnesota selected him first overall in 2017.

Still, it’s easy to understand why teams would remain intrigued.

Lewis offers legitimate right-handed power and would immediately become one of the most talented offensive players in Boston’s lineup. Defensively, he’s appeared in 230 career games at third base, committing just 23 errors while posting a .956 fielding percentage.

If healthy, Lewis would fit best at third base, allowing Caleb Durbin to slide across the diamond to second.

Durbin has been excellent defensively and looks capable of developing into a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman. Offensively, however, he has been one of the least productive regulars in Boston’s lineup. While he’s shown signs of life recently with five hits and four RBI over his last three games, the overall body of work remains underwhelming.

The bigger question is what Minnesota would demand in return.

The Twins would almost certainly ask for pitching, and Boston has no shortage of intriguing arms. Anthony Eyanson should be completely off limits. The right-hander has dominated every level he’s touched this season and has quickly become one of the organization’s most valuable pitching prospects.

Beyond Eyanson, however, names such as John Holobetz, Hayden Mullins, and Blake Wehunt could draw interest. It’s fair to wonder whether some of Boston’s upper-level pitching depth has remained at Double-A Portland in part because those arms could become attractive trade chips this summer.

If Breslow explores a deal for Lewis, though, the injury history must dictate the price.

The Red Sox should not part with premium prospects for a player who has appeared in more than 106 games just once in his professional career. There is risk anytime you trade prospects this time of year. 

That’s especially true given Breslow’s recent history of aggressive trades. Last summer’s deal for Dustin May cost Boston prospects James Tibbs III and Zach Ehrhard for what ultimately amounted to six starts. Tibbs has since blossomed in the Dodgers system, hitting .317 with 16 homers, 15 doubles, two triples, 50 RBI, with 36 walks and a 1.063 OPS. 

I toyed with the idea of the Red Sox pursuing outfielder Byron Buxton, but ultimately left him off the list. The fit just isn’t obvious right now with the logjam in the outfield. 

Buxton remains one of the most dynamic players in baseball when healthy, but Boston already has a crowded outfield featuring Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, and Anthony. Adding another everyday outfielder would create more questions than answers.

Unless the Red Sox were willing to move Duran as part of a deal for Buxton, or in a separate trade altogether, it’s difficult to see where Buxton fits on an everyday basis.

The Red Sox roster construction has been heavily criticized this offseason and adding Buxton would further complicate things for interim manager Chad Tracy. 

For that reason, Lewis makes considerably more sense as a potential target than Buxton, even with the injury concerns that come attached to him.

Zach Neto / SS / Los Angeles Angels 

The Red Sox reportedly explored a trade for Zach Neto last offseason, though the two sides never came particularly close to completing a deal.

Neto, 25, has rebounded from a slow start to put together another productive season, posting a 120 OPS+ while hitting .235 with 10 home runs, 14 doubles, 27 RBI, and a .779 OPS.

One aspect of Neto’s profile that could give some Red Sox fans pause is the strikeout rate. The shortstop has struck out in 30.4% of his plate appearances this season while walking at a 12.6% clip.

The Angels would like to see Neto become a more selective hitter and get on base more consistently. That likely starts with dialing back some of his aggressiveness at the plate and improving his swing decisions in hitter-friendly counts.

Since Story landed on the injured list, the Red Sox have shifted Marcelo Mayer back to shortstop and given him an extended opportunity at the position. Mayer remains one of the organization’s most important young players, but he has fewer than 100 major league games under his belt and battled injuries throughout portions of his minor league career.

If Boston was aggressively pursuing Neto over the winter, it suggests Breslow and the front office believe there are higher-ceiling options available at the position than simply handing it to Mayer and hoping for the best.

That naturally raises an interesting question that if the Red Sox revisit talks for Neto, would they consider building a package around Mayer?

Neto is earning just $4.15 million this season and remains under team control through 2029. Players with that combination of age, production, defensive value, and years of control rarely become available.

Los Angeles enters play just six games behind the final American League Wild Card spot and only two games behind Boston. Even if the Angels ultimately decide to listen on Neto, there will be no shortage of interested teams calling.

The Red Sox’ chief baseball officer has generally preferred targeting value over paying premium prices. Neto, however, is the type of young, controllable player worth making an aggressive offer for if he truly becomes available.

As intriguing as Mike Trout-to-Boston speculation may be, Neto arguably makes far more sense.

Trout’s full no-trade clause makes any deal highly unlikely, and his age and injury history create significant long-term questions. Neto, meanwhile, is entering his prime years and could provide Boston with a long-term solution at one of the game’s most important positions.

More importantly, he’d represent an immediate offensive upgrade.

The question isn’t whether Neto would make the Red Sox better. It’s whether Boston is willing to pay the substantial acquisition cost that comes with a player who could be a franchise shortstop for the next five seasons.

Matt Chapman / 3B / San Francisco Giants

Breslow and Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey already have a history of pulling off blockbuster deals.

The two shocked the baseball world on Father’s Day last season when they completed the trade that sent Rafael Devers to San Francisco.

Could they revisit trade talks this summer, this time with Boston targeting one of the Giants’ veteran bats?

San Francisco's third baseman Matt Chapman is an intriguing name, but his age and salary aren't appealing. 

One could argue the veteran third baseman might benefit from a change of scenery after a difficult start to the season in San Francisco. Through 57 games, Chapman owns a .636 OPS and has struggled to provide the offensive production the Giants expected when they committed to him long-term. The veteran has posted an OPS below .750 only once previously during his 10-year major league career, making this season’s downturn somewhat surprising.

Chapman's power outage has been particularly notable; he's hit just one home run all season. His average exit velocity ranks in only the 15th percentile, while his hard-hit rate (16th percentile) and barrel rate (19th percentile) are both among the worst marks of his career. For a player whose offensive value has historically been tied to driving the baseball with authority, those declines are alarming.

Perhaps most troubling is what has happened to his launch-angle profile.

Chapman’s launch-angle sweet-spot percentage ranks in the 1st percentile in Major League Baseball. In other words, he’s rarely hitting balls in the ideal range needed to produce extra-base damage. The result has been weak contact, fewer barrels, and almost no power production.

At 33 years old, the question becomes whether this is simply a prolonged slump or the beginning of an age-related decline.

That’s what would make any potential trade for Chapman so risky.

The Red Sox wouldn’t be buying low on a player who has been unlucky. They’d be betting that one of the worst underlying offensive profiles in baseball can suddenly return to the form that made Chapman one of the game’s premier third basemen.

The Gold Glove defense remains elite and would unquestionably help Boston. But if the bat doesn’t rebound, the Red Sox would be committing significant dollars, $25 million per season through 2023, to a player whose offensive metrics suggest the decline may be more real than temporary.

Hard pass. 

C.J. Abrams / SS / Washington Nationals

The Nationals could be sitting on one of the most intriguing trade chips in baseball if they decide to make C.J. Abrams available this summer.

The bigger question is whether any club will be willing to meet Washington’s asking price for a 25-year-old All-Star-caliber shortstop who remains under team control.

Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni has already shown a willingness to make bold moves. Earlier this year, he dealt MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers in exchange for a five-player package headlined by infield prospect Gavin Fien.

If Washington decides to listen on Abrams, the return would likely need to be even greater.

Abrams has emerged as one of the best shortstops in the National League this season, hitting .291 with a .392 on-base percentage, .544 slugging percentage, and a .936 OPS while adding 12 home runs and 47 RBI.

Throughout his career, Abrams has been an aggressive hitter, entering this season with a .306 career on-base percentage while averaging roughly 35 walks and 130 strikeouts per year. This season, however, he has already drawn 27 walks against just 49 strikeouts, a dramatic improvement that has helped unlock another level of offensive production.

For a Red Sox team desperately searching for more offense, it’s easy to understand why a player like Abrams would be appealing.

The issue is going to be the cost and a player with Abrams’ age, production, athleticism, and years of control would command a massive return. It’s difficult to envision the Nationals even engaging in serious conversations without asking for one of Boston’s premium young pitchers.

That likely means names such as Payton Tolle, Connelly Early would enter the discussion.

Given the state of Boston’s pitching staff, moving either young left-hander feels difficult to justify. Garrett Crochet is still working his way back, Story’s injury has already created roster challenges, and Brayan Bello’s regression has created significant uncertainty behind the front end of the rotation.

Meanwhile, both Tolle and Early have emerged as critical pieces of Boston’s future.

Abrams is exactly the type of player the Red Sox should target, a young, controllable impact bat entering his prime. But if acquiring him requires sacrificing one of the organization’s best young starters, the price may simply outweigh the reward.

In reality, Boston may be better served looking for offensive upgrades that don’t require dismantling one of the few organizational strengths it currently possesses.

Tarik Skubal Available?

Once the calendar flips to June, much of the baseball world will quietly be monitoring the Detroit Tigers.

With Tarik Skubal recovering from surgery and expected to return later this season, Detroit faces a franchise-defining question, can the Tigers claw their way back into the playoff race, or should they trade the two-time Cy Young Award winner before he reaches free agency this winter?

If Detroit falls further out of contention, Skubal immediately becomes the most impactful player available ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

The Tigers should take every phone call on their ace. 

Detroit can’t afford to repeat the mistake the Angels made with Shohei Ohtani in 2023. The Angels reportedly discussed a deal with Tampa Bay that would have netted them elite prospect Junior Caminero before ultimately deciding to keep Ohtani for a playoff push that never materialized. When Ohtani left in free agency, the Angels were left with only a compensation draft pick.

That’s the nightmare scenario for Detroit and it's unlikely they'd let that happen. 

If the Tigers decide to move Skubal sooner rather than later, they could maximize the return by giving an acquiring club more regular-season starts before October. Of course, Skubal must first prove he’s healthy and capable of pitching at the level that made him arguably the best starter in baseball over the previous two seasons.

Assuming he does come back healthy, there won’t be a shortage of suitors.

The Cubs immediately stand out as one of the most logical fits. Chicago has dealt with significant rotation injuries but still possesses a postseason-caliber roster. What the Cubs lack is a true ace capable of matching up with the best arms in baseball come October. They have both the prospect capital and organizational aggressiveness to make a deal happen.

The Dodgers will inevitably be involved in the sweepstakes should he be available. 

A postseason rotation featuring Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Ohtani, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow would be downright unfair. Los Angeles has the prospect depth to make Detroit listen, but any package would likely need to include major-league-ready pitching such as Justin Wrobleski or Emmet Sheehan, plus one of the organization’s premium outfield prospects like Zyhir Hope, Josue De Paula or Eduardo Quintero.

The Rays are another team worth watching and have been bold in the past to improve their roster. 

If Tampa Bay was willing to engage on Ohtani, it’s safe to assume they’d explore Skubal as well. Pairing him with Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan would give the Rays one of the most dangerous playoff rotations in baseball. Tampa Bay also possesses the type of deep farm system capable of constructing a compelling package without completely gutting its future.

The Mets will inevitably be mentioned because of Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend. However, New York may be better served waiting until free agency rather than surrendering significant prospect capital. If the Mets believe they can simply outbid the market this winter, trading for Skubal may not be necessary.

The Yankees are another team that would almost certainly monitor the situation, although it’s less clear whether they’d be willing to meet Detroit’s asking price.

As for Boston, they feel like an unlikely fit.

The Red Sox already feature Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray, Tolle and Early as part of their current or future rotation plans. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox would completely ignore the possibility. Teams don’t often get opportunities to acquire a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber. But given Boston’s current roster construction, it would be difficult to justify the prospect cost required to land him.

The Tigers’ performance over the next six weeks or so will likely determine the outcome.

When news of Skubal’s surgery broke on May 4, Detroit sat at 18-17 and tied with Cleveland atop the American League Central. Since then, the Tigers have slipped to 22-37 and fallen near the bottom of the American League standings.

Yet even with that disappointing record, Detroit remains only seven games out of a Wild Card spot because of the overall mediocrity across much of the American League.

If the Tigers remain within striking distance of a postseason berth when Skubal returns, ownership and the front office may feel pressure to make one final run with their ace. If the slide continues, however, Detroit may have no choice but to seriously consider cashing in its most valuable asset before he reaches free agency.