As everyone in New England knows well by now, the Eagles and Patriots could consummate their trade of wide receiver A.J. Brown at any point after 4 p.m. on Monday, which is when the Eagles can move Brown to help ease the salary cap ramifications. All signs and information that I have point to this deal being done sooner rather than later. With that in mind, let's look at the player the Patriots will likely acquire and answer a few key questions, like whether or not Brown is a No. 1 receiver and what his trade value should be. We watched four games from last season, looked back on some of his highlights in previous years, and acquired some NGS numbers that are pretty revealing. The takeaways and some film analysis:
POSITIVES
His size and strength: The Eagles list Brown as 6-1 and 226 pounds. Coming out in the 2019 draft, he measured at 6 foot and a half, and 226 pounds. He ran a 4.49.
Simply put, they don't make many receivers like Brown with his size, strength and speed for that size. Brown outweighs most cornerbacks by about 30 pounds. And his strength, from his upper body to his lower body, is a mismatch against pretty much all cornerbacks. Once he gets going, he is tough to bring down. Brown often wins just because of his size and strength, especially in the red zone. That's not going away anytime soon. He bullies weaker cornerbacks.
Good hands catcher: Brown is a natural receiver of the ball as he uses his large (9 3/4 inches) and strong hands to snag the ball out of the air. Brown had some issues with drops early in his career — he posted a drop rate of 11.7 in 2021 and 8.4 in 2020 — but he's been at 3.6% or under the past three seasons.
Still has enough speed and route running is good: Brown can gobble up cushion against zone rather easily, and can stop quickly to separate despite being so big. His releases against press coverage are very good and provide him with some room off the line.
He's basically unstoppable on backshoulder passes and slants: Expect Drake Maye to become an expert at throwing backshoulder passes to Brown. The receiver is pretty much just a backshoulder, hitch and slant receiver at this point, and needs some help to get open deep (more on that in a minute). It's not a full route tree, but it's effective enough. If he's open on a slant and not taken down immediately, Brown's a threat to go all the way.
Brown is a willing blocker: On receiver screens and in the run game, Brown will block down on a linebacker or safety, and is more effective than most thanks to his size and strength. I wouldn't say he's a great blocker, but it's good enough.
NEGATIVES
Brown has lost a step: It looks that way on film, and it's confirmed by NGS numbers provided by an opponent.
Last season, Brown achieved a max speed of at least 19 mph in 13% of his games. He went over 18 MPH in 53% of his games. In 2024, he was at 54% and 77%, respectively. And his average from 2022-24 was 47% and 93%.
Brown was also 52nd among receivers with at least 40 receptions in average separation at target at 2.4 (Romeo Doubs was 51st) in 2025. He was 63rd at 2.1 in 2024. His career high was 2.67 in 2021 with the Titans.
So, yes, Brown has lost a step, and will lose more as he ages. The only question is how fast?
He only goes all out on routes where he expects to be the primary target: I wouldn't say he dogs it on other routes, but you clearly see another gear when Brown thinks he's going to be the primary receiver deep. Now, this could be a byproduct of Brown being miserable with the Eagles, especially in the offense of fired OC Kevin Patullo. I don't think this is going to be an issue under Mike Vrabel, but it's there on film.
He needs help to get open deep for a big play: Brown mostly wins on deep routes by body position and great ball placement by the quarterback, which Maye obviously can do and it's a strength of his, so the two should pair well. To get open for a really big play, Brown needs a little help in the form of deception, like a stutter-and-go, out and up, and sluggos (slant and go). He sells the fake well and gets cornerbacks to bite, which is what he needs to get over the top. Brown's a good actor but also maintains his speed. So this is a little bit of a strength and a weakness.
He does not dictate coverage: If you're expecting Brown to be Randy Moss and garner the attention of both the cornerback and the safety on half of the field, you're going to be disappointed. In the four games I watched, I didn't see the safeties keeping an eye on Brown. They were definitely more worried about DeVonta Smith.
The knee: The Rams told me Brown's knee had nothing to do with them not wanting to trade for Brown (it was all about them not wanting to wait until June 1), but others have reported it did play a factor. I did ask an AFC GM why they weren't interested in Brown, considering they could use a strong boundary receiver. "Bad knee," he said.
Perhaps related, Brown has also had hamstring issues over his career, so all that is going to have to be monitored.
The knee has to be thoroughly investigated in the physical, and it better not just be a courtesy look over because Vrabel has a history with Brown. Look at him the same way the Ravens looked at Maxx Crosby and come to a consensus.
IS HE A NO. 1 RECEIVER?
The answer to this question is always in the eye of the beholder and depends on your definition. If you're just looking for volume, then yes, Brown is a No. 1 receiver. To me, a true No. 1 receiver is a player that causes defensive coordinators to gameplan for that player, that dictates coverage and garners extra attention that allows other targets to flourish.
Under that definition, no, Brown is not a No. 1 receiver. But if you expect 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards, Brown is a No. 1 receiver.
WHAT SHOULD HIS TRADE VALUE BE?
The Patriots told me they were in the realm of a second-round pick for Brown. I would concur. I think you get two, maybe three, seasons of good play that will help Maye, especially in the red zone where the Patriots underwhelmed last year. I think that's worth a second-round pick in 2027. I know people don't like it, but that would also be a 2028 first-round pick, provided it's in the late 20s. I do think that's fair, but I want something coming back from the Eagles in the form of, at least, a really advantageous pick swap.
Fair to me: Brown and Eagles' third-round pick in 2028 (they don't have one in 2027) to the Patriots for New England's 2028 first-round pick, and a fifth-round pick in 2028.
WHAT ADJUSTMENTS JOSH MCDANIELS SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT MAKE
I think Brown largely just slips into the same scheme and takes over the Kayshon Boutte routes, as they are similar players in that they are very good on backshoulders and winning 50-50 balls. It's just that Brown is better and bigger. I don't expect much to change, and it's not like the Patriots have been developing another playbook with Brown in mind. They've been doing what they always do.
I would like to see the Patriots manage Brown's reps. He played a lot for the Eagles — he rarely came off the field (his snap percentage the last four years: 91, 86, 89, 85), which is a credit to his conditioning and competitiveness. But I think he could be potentially a better player — and extend his career with the Patriots — if he played around 70 or 75 percent for much of the season, with the potential to go up in bigger games and toward the end of the season. This would allow Kyle Williams, especially, to pick up some snaps and give a different look (more speed) at the X while Brown gets a breather. I do think this is an area where the Patriots under Vrabel are very smart, as we saw with Stefon Diggs' snap counts last year (55%, when he had normally been over 80% in his career).