Before we get into our last postseason notebook with the fine folks who work in the league (and I’m not talking about the massage therapist, though I could use one), I had a conversation with Josh McDaniels on the final day of media availability this week. Obviously, we talked about Drake Maye, and I was curious about how the Patriots’ offensive coordinator was handling his quarterback’s uneven postseason. Did McDaniels need to build him back, or hit a bit of a mental reset?
“He doesn't need to be built up. He's a confident guy by nature. I think it's more about understanding what this is about, why it's different, and why it feels different. We've already gone through that for the last four weeks. So this month has been very impactful for us, understanding what postseason football is. A month ago, we had no idea what that meant. I mean, we had no idea together. One of us did, but it didn't matter what I knew. It rarely does if the coach has experience and the players don't. I can say whatever I want. He's got to live through it. And he did, and we're still standing.
“So I keep telling them, like, it doesn't make any difference what it looks like, as long as we have one more number than they do at the end, that's the only thing that matters. In New England, we've played in Super Bowls where it was 3-3 in the fourth quarter. And we played in Super Bowls where it took us 34 points to win. So I don't really care what it looks like. I have no ego in terms of how this game goes. He and I know that we will figure out what's required of us as the game goes along. And that's what I've told him: I don't know if we're going to need 38 or 10. We won't know till Sunday, and we'll figure it out then. “
That quote spoke to one aspect of this team, but it struck me as so much more than that. That’s what this year has been about: learning not just what works and what doesn’t, but learning each other. Like any relationship, there are ups and downs, but this team has tapped into something special. Perhaps that ride comes to an end on Sunday. Or perhaps it just reaffirms the message and the process, beautifully married to the coaches and players assembled. It's not perfect, but it sure feels awfully close.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
AFC Assistant GM: “I’m not breaking news here, but the Patriots need more from Maye. A lot of credit to the run game and defense for proving they don’t just rise and fall with the play of the quarterback, but, pound for pound, this is the best defense in the league, coached up by the best defensive play-caller in the league. Maye can’t be careless with the football. He can’t have these accuracy issues. Can McDaniels get him back to that level? He certainly got him to a place (MVP-level, he added) that I don’t think anyone would have thought possible this soon. But he needs to get him back there, and I wonder if this defense is too schematically sound to allow that to happen.”
NFC QB coach: “Stafford ripped this defense up a couple of times. He’s seen everything and done everything. I think asking Maye to have all the answers for what he’s going to see - especially with (Mike) Macdonald having two weeks of prep - is unlikely. Now I’m not telling you he can’t have success. He’s as talented as anyone playing the position, and we know damn well he can access every area of the field. But Maye’s going to have to play at a graduate or PhD level. He needs to have an ‘Old School’ moment. Certainly capable, but this is a massive stage so early in his career.”
What happened? I blacked out. Old School Debate Scene https://t.co/tIKiRsKV3S via @YouTube
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) February 5, 2026
AFC QB coach: “My only worry about Maye is, will he hunt the big play too much? Like, to his detriment? Otherwise, I think he’s up to the moment. He’s made enough plays to help them win in the playoffs. It may not be what it was in the regular season, but it's been good enough. And Seattle hasn't played anyone quite like him."
AFC Offensive coordinator: “I think his (Maye) ability to extend plays will be huge in this game. When he gets into that mode - and it can’t be all the time - he’s great. He can cut your heart out, either by running or making on the money throws down the field. Look at how often Maye’s leaned on his legs in these playoffs. If he sees it open up, go. Whatever it takes.
“I know this - I know the Seahawks don’t like to put eyes on mobile QBs. Maybe they mix it up after watching every snap the kid has taken. If they don’t, run. You can rest when it’s all over...
“I gotta believe they (Pats) have studied where the Rams had success. They got some chunk plays when Seattle felt compelled to deviate from their split-safety structure and plunk a safety in the box. Give that look to Maye and see what happens.”
AFC offensive line coach: “Can the Patriots run the Seahawks out of nickel? Or at least, run enough such that they have to respect it? They’ve been better at running recently - a higher success rate - but I think being at the level they were for much of the season would be fine (Mike: 22% success rate in reg. season). A 3-yard run isn’t a bad thing. Just keep hammering the nail.”
“I’d love to see the Pats employ some weak-side runs when they go have a 6th offensive lineman on the field. DLs tend to slide over one gap to react to that alignment, and it reduces numbers on the backside of the formation and gets you into that one-on-one situation with your back against a tackler.”
NFC passing game coordinator: “Pop a couple of explosives (Pats were 8th in explosive run rate) - and I’m not necessarily talking about a 50-yarder (that wouldn't hurt!) - and that will create enough balance to take a little off Maye’s plate. It won’t be easy. Seahawks are excellent with their structure and at filling or closing gaps, but McDaniels' scheme is going to challenge them.”
AFC QB coach: “I’m attacking (Riq) Woolen. He’s super talented, and he may turn you over, but there’s a level of inconsistency there and immaturity. We saw it in the NFC title game. Work him. Work (Josh) Jobe. I think (Kayshon) Boutte and (Mack) Hollins can get ‘em, or get a flag on him.”
NFC wide receiver coach: “My concern for the Pats offense is how well Seattle swarms to the ball, even on pass plays. I just don’t see a ton of yards after the catch, especially with their wide receiver group (He’s not wrong, Pats were 19th in YAC).
“The Seahawks invite checkdowns late on money downs. Sometimes, Maye might need to take them early and get Stevenson or Henderson one-on-one and hope they can make ‘em miss.”
WHEN THE SEAHAWKS HAVE THE BALL
AFC defensive coordinator: “I saw what you wrote (Mike note: I’m wicked popular) about the defensive tackles. I think those guys - especially #97 (Milton Williams) and #90 (Christian Barmore) - are the key to the whole game. If they dominate - and I think they can - the Pats can throw the entire Seahawks operation into chaos. Run? Not if those two are driving the interior backward. Pass? One quick first step, and (Sam) Darnold is already looking at the rush and not at what’s happening down the field. They are the key defensively.
“The Seattle offense is not some all-time unit. They’re good. They’re sound. (Klint) Kubiak has done a nice job getting Darnold into the situations where he’s most comfortable. But he’s inconsistent, he can and will be rattled, and if the Patriots can cage Kenneth Walker, it's gonna come down to Darnold being forced to make the right decisions and the right throws consistently. I don’t think it’s going to look like it did against the Rams for him. Vrabel will have answers.”
NFC DL coach: “I’m focused on Walker. He’s been so much better here over the last month or so. His willingness to take what’s there can change where defenders' eyes go, or lead to surrendering leverage on the outside shoulder. That’s where Walker gets you. He bounces and, with his speed, can turn 2 into 20. Vrabel has probably drilled down on that point home to his edge guys. Now go do it.”
AFC Cornerback coach: “Their passing offense runs through JSN (Jaxson Smith-Njigba), but you can’t paint the same picture for Darnold over and over again. So my inclination would be to run a fair amount of 1-double (Carlton Davis and a safety), but not use (Christian) Gonzalez in that role, just for a snap here or there. Give him (Cooper Kupp or, more likely, Rashid Shaheed, and just erase that player from the equation.
“Then, when you feel like you want to muddy things up for Darnold, have Gonzalez shadow him. Or make it look like man and post-snap fall back into cover 2. I just don’t think you can live in one look too often. That’s when you’re asking for trouble, unless the rush is super disruptive.”
AFC linebacker coach: “Kupp’s a warrior. The tight end (AJ Barner) is, too. But if I’m Kuhr and that staff, I am not letting JSN and Walker beat me. They’re the focal point, and if Kubiak/Darnold can move the ball and score points by working through secondary options, so be it.
“Plus, that offensive line isn’t all that. Good but not great, and the interior can be gotten. Zabel (first round rookie Grey Zabel at left guard) hasn’t looked quite the same since he got hurt, and the (Anthony) Bradford kid is the weak link, and everybody knows it, including Seattle. And yet, because of the position (right guard), there’s not a whole hell of a lot they can do to help him, or mask his deficiencies. I can see the defensive line eating, and I can also see 53 (Christian Elliss) or #31 (Craig Woodson) flying through the A or B gaps unblocked and fucking shit up. All you need is one big play - one sack fumble - to change the whole feel and drag Darnold to that bad place.”
AFC Personnel Director: “If I’m the Patriots, I keep blitzing Sam, I keep running games up front, and I stay in attack mode. He’s not even an ordinary QB under pressure. He’s a less than. It’s worked for you as a defense. It always works well against him. Don’t change what you’ve become because you’ve had two weeks to think about it. Lean into it. Embrace it. Get after it even more.
“Seattle is not good in the quick game (generally, how you can beat the blitz). New England isn’t either (Mike note: they just don’t have those quick-twitch, uncover rapidly receivers). If the Pats hit JSN with doubles or shade help in his direction, Darnold’s going to be throwing to guys that he didn’t much like throwing to during the regular season. Making Seattle play left-handed would be a win in my book.”
ODDS AND ENDS
AFC WR coach: “I doubt Pop (Douglas) is suddenly going to revert back to a high-volume receiver, but I still think there’s a big play to him down the seam or to the post.”
“If the Seahawks don’t get a good Darnold game, I don’t think they’re scoring 20. If the game is that mucked up, I like your QB (Maye) to make just enough plays to win.”
AFC Personnel Exec: “Vrabel has been a great in-game coach this year. Macdonald? He’s certainly more conservative, and I wonder if that will bite him in the ass? You have to really feel how the game is being played and not just lean on the numbers. Vrabel knew the Pats were in a rock fight in Denver. They played as such. Macdonald understood they needed to score against the Rams. They did. But more often than not, he’s been content to let his defense win.”
I'll write it again, just as I've told all these guys, I can't thank 'em enough for taking time with me, especially over the last four weeks.
NERD NUMBERS
- Darnold vs. late-down blitzes (3rd/4th & 7 or longer): 32nd in batted passes, 30th in air yards per attempt, 28th in INT rate, 28th in explosive play rate, 25th in EPA per dropback.
- Darnold vs. stunts has a 70 passer rating. Not great.
- Darnold will be used a fair amount of rollouts and boots. The Pats’ defense has the 2nd lowest EPA per dropback on such plays, is tied for first with most interceptions (3), and has allowed the 3rd lowest explosive play rate (trailing only the Seahawks and Broncos)
- Opening script (first 15 plays): Seahawks are #1 in EPA per dropback. After, they fall into the 20s. The Patriots' defense is in the bottom 3 in EPA per play in the first 15. After? #1.
- Seahawks offense runs well out of 12-personnel. They are 7th in success rate overall, and have a 58% success rate when they run against nickel with that grouping. The Pats would prefer to be in nickel for the majority of the time.
- Versus multiple tight end sets this season, the Pats felt comfortable enough with Robert Spillane on the field to play nickel 45% of the time. Without Spillane, that number drops to 28.5%.
- Walker had the second-most rushing yards out of 12 personnel this year, trailing only Bijan Robinson.
- Seahawks love play action out of 12 personnel, calling it 46% of the time. That’s 4x higher than their play action rate out of 11 personnel. They average an ungodly 13.1 yards per play.
- With Milton Williams on the field, the Patriots are 6th in pass-rush win rate (pressure in 2.5 seconds or less).
- Maye has been sacked 15 times in the postseason. His pressure-to-sack rate has jumped from 23% in the regular season to 47% in the postseason. It’s also a sky-high 58% against four-man rushes.
- Maye has 9 scrambles for 125 yards in the postseason, good for a half-dozen first downs. He also forced five missed tackles on those scrambles.
- Seahawks run defense is #1 in DVOA, success rate, EPA per play, and explosive runs allowed.
- Edges Boye Mafe (8th) and DeMarcus Lawrence (15th) rank highly in pass-rush win rate.
- The Seahawks have schemed up 59 unblocked pressures this season. That’s the second-most since 2019. The team ahead of this one? The 2023 Ravens, coordinated by...Mike Macdonald.
- Out of empty, the Pats’ offense has averaged 7.9 yards per play. The Seahawks defense has allowed the 4th-most yards per play and the 9th-highest explosive play rate against empty sets.
- Maye averaged 10.4 yards per attempt against single-high safety looks this season. That led the NFL.
- Hunter Henry/Austin Hooper game? The Seahawks have allowed 134 yards to tight ends in two playoff games, and were 16th in DVOA against tight ends during the regular season.
- The Seahawks defense has missed 162 tackles, 12th most in the league. Drake Thomas, Coby Bryant, and DeMarcus Lawrence have been the biggest culprits, percentage-wise.