No preambles here. There’s a big game on Sunday between the Patriots and Texans. I’ve once again tapped into my contacts around the league and given them plenty of leeway to size up this matchup. As always, I’m thankful they gave me the time to share with you.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
AFC Pro Personnel director: “The level of talent the Texans have on defense is impressive. The Patriots have (Drake) Maye. Can the OC (Josh McDaniels) give his guy enough answers? It’s not like the Texans try to confuse you. They like their guys better than yours every week, for good reason. When you can rush four and kick ass, there’s no reason to go too hard in the lab. I’d make them prove they have a real response before I change who I am and what I do.”
AFC defensive back coach (team played the Pats this year): “I told you last week the Chargers should consider keeping eyes on Maye. They didn’t, at least not enough, and look at how it changed the game. The Texans won’t make that same mistake. That doesn’t mean Maye can’t make plays with his legs, but those linebackers in particular are going to discourage it as best they can, and try to make him pay when he does.
“This feels like a big (Stefon) Diggs game to me. On early downs for sure. The Texans like to play zone on 1st and 2nd downs. That’s where Diggs is at his best. But this is also a week where the Pats receivers are going to have to win on 3rd downs, when the Texans play a lot more man. Can they? Maye does so much for them with ball placement, but make a play for him when the play is there to be made.”
AFC Defensive coordinator (team played the Pats this year): “This week is no different than last for (Will) Campbell, except these two edge rushers are better than anything the Chargers ran at him. McDaniels will need to help him, but there’s only so much you can do (Mike’s note: Campbell has had some issues with his spacing after having edge rushers chipped). Eventually, he’s going to have to handle his own business.
“I’d also expect plenty of games against that left side. You don’t win ‘em all. Maybe you don’t win many. But eventually - and the tape shows this (it did last week) - they’re going to screw one up. Is that the strip sack? Or a big third-down stop? Or do you force Maye to throw one up for grabs?
Pro scout for an AFC Team (that played the Texans): “Because of how aggressive the Texans are, there will be chances to make plays. All three corners (Stingley, Lassiter, Pitre) want the ball, and if they can’t get the ball, want to send the receiver a message. That leads to wandering eyes. Not always. But when they’re looking in the wrong place, make them pay. Maye’s been great with that all season.”
AFC offensive line coach: “The Texans are a little lighter on the interior and at the linebacker level. I don’t think McDaniels will be afraid to run it at them. They can get to that in a bunch of different ways: an extra offensive lineman, two tight ends, a fullback, or out of 11 (personnel). Doesn’t have to just be power. Stevenson is seeing it well. Some zone runs. Keep probing.”
WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
AFC defensive coordinator: “Dial up the interior pressure. The three inside players (right guard Ed Ingram, center Jake Andrews, left guard Tytus Howard) aren’t headed for the Hall of Fame. Andrews can be knocked on his ass. This should be a big night for #97 (Milton Williams) and #90 (Christian Barmore). This better be a big night for them.
“Like a lot of QBs, CJ Stroud hates traffic at his feet. Unlike some of them, he’ll try to do too much. You saw how that can play (against Pittsburgh). He will absolutely give you opportunities to take the ball away.
“Not having #12 (Nico Collins) is brutal, especially for a game like this. That’s Stroud’s guy, for good reason, especially when he leaves the pocket. They’ll be asking a lot of players who might not be ready or capable of delivering in this environment. My thought would be this gives the Pats an extra body to defend the run, and I’m sure Houston would love to lean on that aspect of its game (Woody Marks had the first 100-game of his career Monday).”
AFC personnel exec: “(Robert) Spillane and Williams are difference-makers for them, and they make everyone around them better. No coincidence Barmore showed up against the Chargers with Williams next to him. No coincidence the defense was flying around with Spillane back in the middle. That was money well spent. Contrast that with the Texans' lack of investment in their offensive line. The Pats can win that battle. They should win that battle.”
AFC defensive line coach: “I think what they (Pats) did against the Chargers is a little bit of fool’s gold. They just fired their OC and line coach for a reason. The Wild Card game was the cherry on top of that shit sundae (Mike - sorry, that’s gross).
“But I don’t say that to diminish what Vrabel did. Looking at them, they’re doing more than they did earlier in the season, and they’re very connected from front to back. You can see it by how much faster they’re playing. A real credit to them. The number of blitzers and creepers around the line of scrimmage makes it tough for an offense if they’re not seeing it with the same set of eyes. I’d expect them to test the Texans’ communication. I have more faith that their line might see it and adjust better, but the QB? Your guess is as good as mine."
ODDS AND ENDS
AFC assistant coach: “Stroud has PTSD from last year. They couldn’t block, and it changed his clock. I don’t think he’s fully recovered from that. Every time it gets congested, who knows what he’ll do?”
AFC wide receiver coach: “Pats don’t have a lot of speed outside, but I do think (Pop) Douglas’ quickness might give Pitre problems. We know he’s not a heavy volume receiver, but if that one catch goes for 40, I bet they’d sign up for that.”
AFC scout: “If the Pats get to 20, they win. With Collins out, the Texans are banking on a first-time coordinator (Nick Caley) to scheme it up on a short week. Advantage, Patriots.”
AFC defensive coordinator: “The Texans feed off chaos. Protect the ball and protect the quarterback. Pats give up sacks - or Maye takes them - but there haven’t been a ton of backbreakers. That approach has to stay the same.”
NERD NUMBERS FOR PATS VS TEXANS
- Will Anderson has had 4+ pressures in every game this year, except week 11 at Tennessee and week 18 against Indy (he played 19 snaps). Danielle Hunter has had three or more in every game with the exception of week 5 at Baltimore (he got hurt), week 13 at Indy, and week 18 against Indy (just 17 snaps)
- Texans are 1st in yards allowed per game and second in points per game, and are #1 in EPA against throws of 20 yards or less. But on throws past 20, they fall to 18th in EPA per play.
- Calen Bullock (51.9), Jalen Pitre (58.9), and Derek Stingley (59.6) had 3 of the 4 lowest passer ratings allowed by a defensive back with 40+ targets in 2025 (per Next Gen Stats).
- Stroud has completed 72 of 148 passes when pressured for 848 yards, five touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 60.9. He was 3-of-9 for 20 yards against the Steelers, threw an INT, and fumbled twice.
- Including playoffs, the Patriots' sack rate more than doubles with Williams on the field (10.0 pct) as opposed to when he is off the field (4.1 pct), per Next Gen Stats.
- Stroud vs. man this year: 14 TDs, 1 INT, 48% success rate (8th-best in NFL).
- Per NGS, Marks was hit at the line of scrimmage on 48% of his carries in 2025, 4th most in the league with at least 150 attempts. Pats defense hit the opposing ball carrier behind the LOS 34.8% of the time.
- On later downs, the Texans play a lot of cover 3 and cover 1. Guess who eats in those spots? Maye is first drop-back EPA vs. those two coverages (again, in late-down situations). He has a 57% success rate (1st) and averages 10.9 per attempt (1st). Maye also converted seven of his eight scrambles for first downs.
- Maye is the1st player in NE history with 250+ pass yards and 50+ rush yards in a playoff game. He’s only the 4th player ever to do so in a playoff game prior to their 24th birthday, joining Lamar Jackson (2019), Josh Allen (2019), and Daunte Culpepper (2000).
- This will be the first time in Maye’s career that he will face a team with a top-5 scoring and total defense entering the week
'WONDERFUL MARRIAGE' ENDS IN A DIVORCE
For the first time since the Baltimore Ravens parted ways with head coach John Harbaugh back on January 6th, team owner Steve Bisciotti fielded questions about the decision in a nearly hour-long press conference at the team facility in Owings Mills, Maryland. There had been a number of conflicting stories about how much influence the locker room - in particular, Lamar Jackson - had on that choice.
“I don’t think that the players had a large part in my decision,” Bisciotti said. “My decision by Monday was pretty much set. By the time I got off the phone with Lamar, I had told him that my decision was pretty set. ‘But when I hang up with you, I don’t want you to think that the decision was ironclad.’ That was Monday night.”
There were plenty in the organization who favored keeping Harbaugh, but in the end, Bisciotti decided the time had come to move on.
“I made the decision by myself, and they understood. I didn’t need them to come to my side of the fence. It was a wonderful, wonderful marriage.
“I just thought it was something that in the last 10 years, we’ve won the third-most games in the NFL, and yet, people were saying we were underachievers. We were, and we had to own that. I got to the point where I didn’t believe I’d feel regret making the decision, and that’s what instinct is.”
The Ravens have interviewed or are scheduled to interview a slew of candidates, canvassing former head coaches (Kevin Stefanski, Vance Joseph, Matt Nagy, Brian Flores, Kliff Kingsbury), young offensive minds (Davis Webb, Klint Kubiak), and several on the defensive side as well (Anthony Weaver, Jesse Minter, Chris Shula). Unlike some other vacancies, this one appears to have no favorite, and Bisciotti said he rules out no one.
"I could say I'm disqualifying coaches with losing records, but I think you have to remember that they were the hottest coaches in their cycle, and they got tough jobs, and I don't think we have a tough job,” he said. “I think that we created the best opening in this cycle."
Whoever lands the job would be wise to figure out what makes Jackson tick. As I’ve written in this space a couple of times in recent weeks, the two-time MVP’s contract will jump to more than $74 million for the upcoming season. For a team that wants to retain 25-year-old center Tyler Linderbaum and also needs to add pieces to the defense, that number is untenable.
“If he doesn’t want to do an extension, then we throw those $74 million into void years, and Lamar is coming back at the same cap number he was last year,” Bisciotti said. “That’s not what we want. We want another window, and Lamar knows that. I think he’s amenable to doing something that mirrors the last deal he did, although the annual number will be a little higher.
“The urgency of that matters to me, because we got free agents and I don’t want to go into free agency with that hanging over my head. I made that very clear to Lamar, and I think he was very appreciative of my stance.”
That said, the Ravens have never been able to get something done contractually with Jackson in an expeditious manner.
END OF AN ERA
After 19 seasons as the Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin stepped down on Tuesday afternoon, less than 24 hours after a 30-6 loss to the Texans in the first round of the playoffs.
“Holy shit. Is that official?” Bisciotti asked when told during his press conference.
“Part of me is happy he was able to step away on his own terms,” Houston coach DeMeco Ryans said. “One of the toughest jobs. Everyone tries to tell you how to do the job. A lot that goes into it. The Steelers were the beneficiary of having that success for 19 years. Not another coach I respect more than Mike Tomlin. Glad he was able to go on his terms.”
Tomlin’s departure is complicated. He had inked an extension back in 2023 that ran through 2027. However, there was a team option that had to be executed by March 1st to ensure the final year. If they didn’t, there would be a level of awkwardness and the potential of Tomlin being a lame-duck. Now?
The Steelers are in the market for just their fourth head coach since 1969.
There’s no doubt that were Tomlin to declare he wants to jump right into the next job, he would vault to the top or near the top of every coaching search. But because he’s under contract for the next year, a team would have to trade for his services. Not crazy to give up what likely would be a late-round pick for his services, nor expected, but just another layer to the story.
“Mike indicated that he did not anticipate coaching, at least in the near future,” Steelers owner Art Rooney said. “If something like that comes up, we'll deal with it when it comes up. But right now, it doesn't appear to be on his radar."
Tomlin’s Steelers won a Super Bowl in just his second year at the helm, captured eight AFC North titles, made 13 postseason appearances, and never had a losing season. But the loss to Houston was Pittsburgh’s seventh straight playoff loss, tying Tomlin with Marvin Lewis for the longest such streak in NFL history.
"Obviously, he's the fall guy, right? “ tight end Jonnu Smith said. “You look at this situation, and you said, 'OK, we went down. Who's the leader?' They're going to look at the leader. And for us, that's Mike Tomlin. But we had a hell of a leader, a great leader, a man that is capable of leading us to ultimately the ultimate goal. And he's done it. He's very capable of doing it.”
Tomlin was hired by Pittsburgh at the ripe old age of 34. Bill Cowher was also 34, and Chuck Noll was 37. All came to the Steel City with defensive backgrounds. Just based on that blueprint, Rams DC Shula (39) and LAC DC Jesse Minter (42) would appear as fits, but rumors also persist of interest in Notre Dame boss Marcus Freeman, who has said he remains committed to coaching the Fighting Irish. We shall see.
NERD NUMBERS, PART 2
BUFFALO AT DENVER
This will be the 20th playoff rematch since 2000 between teams that faced each other in the previous postseason; in 13 of those 19 instances, the same team won both games. Only team since 2000 to lose in the playoffs on the road, then defeat that opponent at home the next postseason was the 2014-15 Panthers (L at SEA, W vs SEA, lost SB 50).
- Josh Allen has won 1+ playoff game in 6 straight postseasons, including this year, the 3rd-longest streak by a starting QB in NFL history (trails only Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes).
- The Bills will need to win 3 road playoff games to reach Super Bowl LX (1-0 so far). Only 5 teams in NFL history have won 3 road playoff games in a single postseason: 2020 Buccaneers (won Super Bowl), 2010 Packers (won Super Bowl), 2007 Giants (won Super Bowl), 2005 Steelers (won Super Bowl), and 1985 Patriots (lost Super Bowl, CHI).
- The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks (also led the NFL with 63 sacks in 2024).
- The Broncos had a 40.7% QB pressure rate and 33.7% blitz rate, per NGS.
- “They’ve got massive studs over there. Obviously, they rush the passer extremely well,” Allen said. “Interior, they’re, again, some big stout guys that can really push the pocket, and they can stop the run. And in the back end, too, a guy like Pat Surtain was Defensive Player of the Year last year. He’s an absolutely fantastic football player.
“We’re going to have our hands full just making sure that we’re putting in the right stuff, understanding the game plan, getting to the right checks, getting to the right calls, executing and playing for each other - because we can’t give them any help. That’s a good team over there.”
SF 49ERS AT SEATTLE
They will meet for the 3rd time in the 2025 season in the Divisional Rd. The 49ers won 17-13 in Seattle Week 1; the Seahawks won 13-3 in San Francisco Week 18.
- Kyle Shanahan has averaged 18.3 PPG in 4 games vs. Mike Macdonald since he became the Seahawks HC in 2024 (his fewest among the 16 HC Shanahan has faced 3+ times, incl. playoffs).
- Sam Darnold will make his second career playoff start (also 2024 WC with MIN at LAR). He’s the first QB since Brady to start in a playoff game in consecutive seasons with different teams.
- Darnold averaged 8.5 yards/attempt (2nd in NFL, Drake Maye 8.9) - Darnold led the NFL with 7 completions of 50+ yards. Darnold and Maye were the only players with 4,000+ pass yards and 8+ pass yards/attempt this year.
- Seahawks DT Jarran Reed had this to say, ““For one, we get a team that we don’t like. Me personally (I) don’t like nothing about them. But just get a chance to go at them again. We don’t do too much talking. We let our pads talk. We know what’s at stake; they know what’s at stake. We know it’s about getting out between them lines and hitting it head on, man on man, mano y mano.”
LA RAMS AT CHICAGO
First playoff matchup since 1985 NFC Championship (CHI 24-0, won Super Bowl XX). Neither Sean McVay nor Ben Johnson was born at the time of the last matchup.
- McVay will coach in his 15th career playoff game against his 15th different opponent.
- The Bears are the 5th team in the last 10 seasons to make the playoffs in a season in which over half of their wins came via a 4th-quarter comeback.
- Caleb Williams completed 58.1 percent of his passes (lowest rate among qualified QBs). The only QB to rank last in completion percentage in the regular season and go on to win the Super Bowl was HOF Terry Bradshaw in 1974.
- It’s supposed to be around 10 degrees at kickoff.
- "You know, I love that kind of stuff,” Matthew Stafford said. “I mean, that's playoff football, right? Cold weather in Chicago, windy day, there's nothing better than that in my mind, so I'm excited for it."