The NBA Trade Deadline falls one month from Monday on Feb. 5, as the new collective bargaining agreement, recent playoff format changes, and a competitive landscape across both conferences likely set up a seller's market across the league. Those few sellers could've included the Boston Celtics if their season without Jayson Tatum, following key offseason departures, had played out the way many expected following May's defeat to the Knicks. Instead, Boston began the year only three games below their 2024-25 pace and five behind the 2024 championship squad into the new year.
That sets up a fascinating deadline for a team that exited the offseason $4 million over the first apron line and $12.1 million above the luxury tax line, the more significant number to watch. Boston projects to spend $200 million on this year's roster, an additional $39.5 million in tax, then slide to $180.6 million in salary between 11 players, which is $21.1 million below the tax threshold entering next summer. Flexibility awaits the Celtics, but between expiring salaries, current financial considerations, and the growing chance that they could contend this year with Tatum back, the next four weeks of their roster management and Tatum's recovery timeline will tell a lot about where this season could turn into the second half following an unimaginably strong start.
- The Celtics have Sam Hauser's $10.0 million and Anfernee Simons' $27.7 million expiring deal as their most significant assets in matching salaries. Due to them moving below the second apron line over the summer, they can aggregate salaries to return a larger one, something to watch for with the team focused on making moves that would help now and in the long-term. Simons' standing in Boston becomes intriguing given the significant savings they could achieve by moving on from him, but there's also an opportunity in continuing to grow and developing his game this season, then exploring options for his future in the offseason. The Celtics have some needs in the front court, where they only recently saw Luka Garza emerge again and played small ball for several weeks behind Neemias Queta, but they're limited on medium-sized salaries and long-term draft picks, owing their 2028 first-round pick swap to San Antonio and an unprotected 2029 to Portland. They reportedly opted not to execute a Simons salary dump with the Nets that involved attaching draft picks, and opportunity and philosophy worth monitoring ahead of next month.
- Some movement in the trade market will begin this week when the Jan. 7 waiver deadline arrives to drop players before their contracts become fully guaranteed on Jan. 10, then trade restrictions drop on Jan. 15 for players signed later, extended or re-signed with their teams for a large raise, including Herb Jones, Santi Aldama, Jonathan Kuminga, Paul Reed, Davion Mitchell and Sam Merrill, among others.
- The Hawks will become the deadline's most active participant after news on Monday that Trae Young and the team will work together on finding him a new home. Young has a $49 million player option for next season, and with the Wizards rumored as a suitor, the market for him appears to be a large expiring contract like CJ McCollum's, alongside a young player or two like Malaki Branham or AJ Johnson. That leaves the Hawks with continued flexibility to remain active ahead of the deadline, with Kristaps Porziņģis' $30.7 million expiring, Zaccharie Risacher's $13.2 million rookie deal, and the better of the Bucks or Pelicans' first-round picks if they want to swing for a star like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- There's still no indication that the Bucks have interest in Antetokounmpo calls, and they could actually become one of the more aggressive buyers as they try to keep him, but with multiple picks owed to New Orleans and Portland into the future, they have limitations on what they can utilize beyond Bobby Portis and Kyle Kuzma's contracts in deals.
- The Mavs seem more than willing to move Anthony Davis for the right price. It's hard to imagine anyone biting on three-years, $175.4 million at age 32, though he's still enough of a difference maker to reportedly make the Hawks and Pistons assess what adding him would look like. Dallas, quickly fading from the playoff picture, will also need to assess Kyrie Irving's (3yrs, $118.5M) future, with those decisions most likely to wait until the offseason. PJ Washington is also ineligible to move before the deadline. Defensive depth center Daniel Gafford (3yrs, $54.4) feels more than likely to move to a team that needs big man depth.
- The Warriors have stressed patience with Steph Curry rolling and the team losing. Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler probably aren't going anywhere. Kuminga almost certainly won't last beyond the deadline. It's unclear what, if any value, he'll return to Golden State given his fall out of the rotation this season. The team, if it chooses to move them, has six of its next seven first-rounders available.
- The always intriguing Lakers, who have annually overhauled their roster in most seasons this decade, probably won't move LeBron James in his contract season. However, that reality makes the move at least plausible this year. More likely, LA will utilize Gabe Vincent's $11.5 million, Maxi Kleber's $11 million and other smaller contracts to make marginal roster upgrades. Austin Reaves carries at least some intrigue as a $14 million piece who would rank among the most valuable trade assets in the league. Even with him missing roughly one month with a calf injury at the moment, it's almost impossible to imagine Reaves moving outside of a blockbuster like Antetokounmpo. LA can only trade its 2031 first-rounder and 2026, 2028 and 2030 pick swaps due to recent deals with Utah and Dallas.
- The taxpayers are always worth watching ahead of a deadline. The struggling Cavs project to pay an enormous $163.8 million tax bill for their roster. New York, Minnesota and the Lakers will pay big bills. It's worth watching what the Warriors ($81.3M), Mavs ($32M) and Clippers ($20.6M) do after struggling in the first half. The Celtics will pay $39.5M as it stands. Boston paid more than that over the past three seasons to contend after totaling only $3.4 million between 2013-2021, when they made moves before the deadline to slide below the tax line before the deadline. The Celtics are 23-12, compared to 18-17 at this point in 2021.
- The cap team, Brooklyn ($15.3M), and teams with more flexibility like the Jazz ($10.6M cap), Washington ($36.6 below apron), Detroit ($26.0M), Memphis ($23.4M), Chicago ($18.7M) and the Bucks ($17.2M). Those teams can aggregate multiple players for one, match salaries more flexibly and can even absorb contracts in some cases. Dallas ($7.0M), Washington ($9.9M, $13.4M), Philadelphia ($8.0M), New Orleans ($13.1M), Detroit ($14.1M) and Utah ($18.4M) have significant trade exceptions. The Rockets ($12.5M) and Pacers ($14.1M) have disabled player exceptions that expire in March from the Fred VanVleet and Tyrese Haliburton injuries.
- The worst teams in the league all sit in different situations. The Pacers probably hope to be back for 2026-27 and won't gut their roster the way Sacramento may be willing to. Look for the Kings to explore Domantas Sabonis (3yrs, $146.8M), DeMar DeRozan (1yr, $24.8M guaranteed) and Zach LaVine (2yr, $96.5M) trades. Malik Monk becomes eligible to move on Jan. 15. Dennis Schröder, Keon Ellis and Russell Westbrook could all help teams. Guard prospect Devin Carter has long been available. Utah's Jusuf Nurkić, Washington's Khris Middleton and McCollum, Charlotte's Pat Connaughton, LA's Chris Paul and Memphis' Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will all inevitably become available.
- Other interesting players to watch: