Teams are asking about Brayan Bello — and why Freddy Peralta is the pitching upgrade that makes sense for the Red Sox

The Red Sox have been active this offseason, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow executing a series of trades aimed at upgrading the roster. Most notably, Boston acquired Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to stabilize the starting rotation, while also adding first baseman Willson Contreras in a separate deal with the Cardinals to inject much-needed power into the middle of the lineup.

Yet despite adding two starters, a question continues to linger around the league: could Boston still look to subtract from its rotation in order to strengthen other areas of the roster—or even the organization as a whole?

According to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Red Sox have “quietly shopped” right-hander Brayan Bello this winter. The report added nuance, noting that “a characterization a person briefed on Boston’s conversations disputed.” Still, that same source acknowledged Bello’s name “often surfaces when teams ask about the Red Sox’s young pitching.”

Bello, 26, is owed $50.5 million over the next four seasons, including a $1 million buyout on a $21 million club option for 2030. That team-friendly contract is a major part of his appeal, particularly for clubs seeking controllable starting pitching without committing long-term free-agent dollars.

On the surface, Bello’s 2025 season was encouraging. He posted a career-best 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings, providing stability in a rotation that often struggled to do so. But teams evaluating him are likely to look beyond ERA—and that’s where the Baseball Savant data becomes critical.

Bello’s Baseball Savant profile paints the picture of a contact-oriented, ground-ball–dependent starter, not a bat-missing arm: he ranks in the 52nd percentile (league average) in Pitching Run Value, 78th percentile in Fastball Run Value, and 84th percentile in Ground-Ball Rate. 

That fastball/ground-ball combination is the foundation of Bello’s success. Once hitters get past the heater, however, the margin shrinks considerably: he ranks in the 13th percentile in Whiff Rate, 16th percentile in Strikeout Rate, 37th percentile in Chase Rate, 25th percentile in xERA at 4.52, and 22nd percentile in xBA at .260. 

In short, Bello doesn’t end at-bats himself. He survives contact, relies on good defense, which has been problematic for the Red Sox over the years, and his sequencing matters. And against elite offenses, the margin for error becomes thin. That profile explains why his expected metrics lag well behind his surface ERA—and why front offices see him more as a mid-rotation stabilizer than a true frontline arm.

That context also explains why Boston would explore Bello’s value now. Breslow has shown a willingness to probe markets aggressively, and precedent supports the approach. When the Baltimore Orioles acquired Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays, they surrendered four top-30 prospects—outfielder Slater de Brun, catcher Caden Bodine, pitcher Michael Forret, and outfielder Austin Overn—along with a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. Baz, under control through 2028, was coming off a career year in starts, innings, and strikeouts.

While Bello doesn’t match Baz’s strikeout ceiling, his age, durability, and contract place him firmly in the same tier of valuable trade assets. But that leads to the central point of this discussion: the only way trading Bello makes sense for Boston is if it brings back a true rotation upgrade.

One name that fits that description is Freddy Peralta, a pitcher the Red Sox have been heavily connected to throughout the offseason.

Peralta’s Baseball Savant profile tells a completely different story: he's in the 97th percentile for Pitching Run Value, 83rd percentile for Whiff Rate, 84th percentile for Strikeout Rate, and 85th percentile for xBA at .209. 

Peralta doesn’t rely on batted-ball luck. He controls outcomes. His four-pitch mix allows him to miss bats in the zone, limit damage when contact happens, and escape trouble without needing perfect defense. That’s why his surface results align with his expected metrics—and why his profile translates cleanly to postseason environments.

From a financial standpoint, Peralta is also a bargain. He’s set to earn just $8 million this season and is coming off a dominant 2025 campaign in which he went 17–6 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.64 FIP, and 204 strikeouts across 33 starts (176 2/3 innings).

A native of the Dominican Republic, Peralta has spent his entire eight-year career with the Milwaukee Brewers, posting a 3.59 ERA across 211 career appearances. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2021, he has developed into one of the National League’s most consistent swing-and-miss arms.

The risk, of course, is contractual. Peralta is under control only through 2026, meaning Boston would almost certainly need to pursue an immediate extension to justify moving Bello. But that’s the type of calculated risk teams take when they believe their competitive window is opening.

The Red Sox already have one frontline starter in Garrett Crochet. What they lack is a second arm who can miss bats against elite lineups, neutralize right-handed power, and start Game 2 of a playoff series with confidence.

Keeping Bello preserves depth but acquiring a pitcher like Peralta raises the ceiling.

Meanwhile, Boston remains linked to Ketel Marte, a storyline that has hovered over the offseason. Marte remains a logical fit for the Red Sox lineup, but acquiring him would effectively close the door on Alex Bregman. Adding another wrinkle, Marte is nearing 10-and-5 rights, which could increase urgency on the Arizona Diamondbacks’ side to move him sooner rather than later.

That’s where Bello potentially enters the equation. A controllable, big-league starter like Bello could be exactly what Mike Hazen is looking for to headline a return package for Marte, particularly as Arizona looks to rebalance its roster and pitching depth. It has been rumored that the Diamondbacks have also targeted young arms such as Payton Tolle or Connelly Early in any potential Marte deal—further underscoring why Bello’s name continues to surface in broader trade conversations.

If Bello were dealt, Boston’s rotation would likely be headlined by Crochet, Gray, and Oviedo, with Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford returning from injuries and rookies Tolle and Early providing depth.

Boston could still add another veteran arm, but the broader picture is clear. Bello isn’t being discussed out of necessity—he’s being discussed because the Red Sox believe his value may never be higher. And unless a deal brings back a rotation-defining arm like Peralta, moving him would be difficult to justify.

But if Breslow sees an opportunity to convert control into dominance, it’s clear the Red Sox are at least listening.