We don't know when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will start.
OK, that's not quite accurate. We don't know if the 2020 Major League Baseball season will start. But such is the ambiguity of these times.
What we do know is that this season, should it take place, will likely resemble no other. It almost certainly is not going to include the standard 162 games. It will finish - if it starts at all -- way past the originally planned Sept. 27 finish.
It could include regular-season games in October and postseason games in November. It could include games with no fans, or reduced capacity. It could involve games played at neutral sites.
It will involve more separate-admission doubleheaders in order to squeeze more games into a smaller time frame. It will feature fewer off-days.
The postseason format could be novel. It could involve an expanded field of 14 teams, as opposed to the current plan for 10.
In short, we don't know what we don't know. Much depends on the re-start date.
But here's a look at some issues that could -- directly or indirectly -- the Red Sox.
FREE AGENCY: In their agreement, MLB and the MLBPA essentially agreed that free agency will remain unchanged. That is, if a player was due to qualify for free agency after the 2020 season, that will still be the case -- whether teams play 130 games or none at all.
That means Jackie Bradley Jr., Brandon Workman, Kevin Pillar, and Collin McHugh will be free agents this winter, no matter what. (It also means that J.D. Martinez will again have the right to opt-out of his deal, as he had last winter and will again have following the 2021 season).
SALARY ARBITRATION: The same rules will apply to arbitration as they do to free agency: if you were going to be arbitration-eligible after a "normal'' 2020 season, you will still qualify now, even if the season never gets underway. This will impact the following Red Sox players, games or not: Matt Barnes, Jose Peraza, Kevin Plawecki, Heath Hembree, Rafael Devers and Ryan Brasier. Also, Josh Osich and Austin Brice could potentially qualify if they accrue the necessary service time, after being optioned to the minors last week.
LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION: As noted, the owners and the union have left open the possibility that games could be held in neutral sites -- perhaps warm weather, perhaps ballparks with retractable roofs, perhaps even spring training sites.
It's possible, then, that should the season resume and regular-season games stretch into October and postseason games into November, that the Sox could end up playing some games in places other than Fenway Park -- especially, however unlikely this now seems, should they qualify for the playoffs.
The Sox have played at Fenway deep into October in previous World Series. But they haven't had games in Boston in November, and that would be quite a chilly undertaking. Thus, it's not out the question that should they qualify, their postseason games could be held in Florida or Arizona.
PAYROLL/COMPETITIVE BALANCE TAX: If no games are played in 2020, no teams will pay any overages for the CBT (competitive balance tax). Under such a scenario, teams like the Red Sox, intent on getting under the CBT for 2020, will need to approach the 2021 season and payroll similarly -- or else, be penalized.
However, consider this: the Red Sox almost certainly weren't going to re-sign Bradley. So if Bradley goes elsewhere this winter as a free agent, the Sox will go into 2021 without Bradley's 2020 salary $11 million on the books, giving them additional room to spend without going over the $207 million threshold.
Current estimates have the Sox at $194 million or so, approximately $13 million under the first threshold. Losing Bradley would mean the Sox could potentially cut that much from their list of obligations, though some of that would be canceled out by some players -- like Devers, most obviously -- receiving substantial increases via salary arbitration.
EXPANDED PLAYOFFS: On paper, this could potentially improve the Red Sox' chances to qualify for the postseason, since presumably, MLB could add two additional wild card teams in each league.
A month or so ago, that might have been welcome news to the Sox, who are housed in a division with two clearly superior teams (New York and Tampa Bay). But the more recent diagnosis for Chris Sale that he needs (has already undergone?) Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow makes this far less likely.
With Sale, a case could be made that the Sox qualified as one of the best seven teams in the A.L., on the strength of their lineup alone. But stripped of contributions from their best pitcher, their rotation has now lost 60 percent of its starters from a year ago (Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello) and it's difficult to envision the team remaining competitive with such thin starting pitching.
AMATEUR DRAFT: The draft -- typically held in early June -- will now be conducted later, but by agreement, no later than July 20.
The draft is also being condensed, from the usual 40 rounds to as few as five. Naturally, that will see MLB also reduce the spending pools each team has to work with, on a pro-rated basis.
Also, non-drafted players will see their signing bonuses reduced from a maximum of $20,000 to a maximum of $10,000.
The elimination of as many as 35 rounds means that signing amateur talent will more closely resemble the pre-1965 draft era, when players were free to sign with any team.
That means, for this year at least, teams with strong scouting could take advantage. While spending will still be capped by a number still to be determined, it will be something of a free-for-all. Imagine being able to sign undrafted players who would otherwise be selected as high as the sixth round, for as little as $10,000?
Potentially, this could offer Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom a unique window to re-stock the Red Sox developmental system. Bloom, from his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, understands the importance of stockpiling homegrown talent. The Sox' current minor league system, while improving in the last two years, is ranked by most experts, in the bottom third of Major League Baseball.
Then again, we still don't know what penalties await the Red Sox from MLB's investigation into their sign-stealing from the 2018 season. There remains a good chance the Sox will be docked draft picks -- in 2020 or beyond -- for their actions, just as the Houston Astros were last fall.
EXPANDED ROSTERS: MLB had already gone from 25 to 26 players for the 2020 season, with rosters further expanded to 28 in September.
Now, in recognition of the challenges faced by pitchers who will be required to ramp up for the season with a shortened (second) spring training, there are reports that MLB will allow, for a period of time at least, rosters of 29 players, allowing for three more players for the start of 2020.
Presumably, those extra spots will be mostly devoted to pitchers, needed to augment the 13-man staffs.
For the Sox, this could mean (temporary) roster spots for the likes of Brice, Osich, or any number of players obtained over the winter to bolster pitching depth, or prospects deemed ready or near-ready to contribute at the major league level in short stints (Tanner Houck springs to mind).
INJURED PLAYERS: To date, there are no known adjustments to IL stints. But the mere fact that the season is (possibly) going to get underway weeks or more likely months later than originally scheduled means additional recovery time.
That won't hope Sale, who's out for the entirety of this season no matter what. But it will buy time for players who were still rehabbing at the time baseball shut down. These include outfielder Alex Verdugo (stress fracture in his back) and McHugh, who was coming back from off-season elbow surgery.
Neither player had a chance to be ready to play on March 26. If, however, the season gets underway June 26, the additional time should make them available, or perhaps close to available following minor league rehab stints,
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